We established the formula here for playoff success. 2 stars plus one more good guy, reliable defensive bigs, and a perimeter scrapper. The teams we found matched the criteria were the Bulls, Lakers, and Thunder. Obviously that leaves out Dallas and Portland, so those two are missing something. In both cases, each team is playing with 1 of the required 2 stars. Let's just break it down, to see where the advantages are in this series that seems the mostly hotly contested in the 1st RD.
My main question is, who's the second and third best players for these teams? We obviously give Dirk the best player edge, but with the caveat that LaMarcus Aldridge is closely in his class. When it comes to 2nd best, both the Blazers and Mavs are playing with a couple of solid 3rd bananas but nobody close to star level. The Mavs will roll out Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion, and washed-up Jason Terry. The Blazers will roll out Gerald Wallace, Andre Miller, and Wes Matthews. Chandler has to edge Wallace (big man advantage) despite almost identical PERs, Miller edges Marion, and Matthews over Terry, but really you're splitting hairs way too finely.
But here's why I like Portland, considering both are comparatively solid offensively and defensively and stock-full of role players who aren't on the level of their respective stars: Portland knows who they are. Dallas still seems so much in flux for me, that I can't imagine them knowing who's going to play for them. Portland will roll out the lineup of Miller/Matthews/Wallace/Aldridge/Camby + Batum/Roy/Fernandez, with the ability to play Aldridge at the 5, Wallace at the 4, and Batum at the 3. Against the Mavs, going small does the Blazers no harm because Chandler can't score and Dirk plays at the foul line extended. Does Portland have holes with their top 2 lineups? Sure. But they basically know what they're getting from everybody on the court, and thus, the players can play with some semblance of cohesion, despite Wallace's addition being only a couple of months old.
Dallas, on the other hand, is too amorphous to get a hold of, despite home court advantage. What role does Beaubois play, who's talented but lost right now. DeShawn Stevenson is back in the lineup, but why? Corey Brewer has played well since coming to Dallas and provides good perimeter defense that Chandler needs to hold down the fort. Kidd starts but Berea is more effective a lot of times, and they both suck defensively. Jason Terry has the green light to shoot when Dirk doesn't, but Terry has been off all year. I like that you know what you're getting out of Shawn Marion, but it isn't offense. These are both jump shooting teams, except the Blazers can go to the post with Aldridge. And they both are streaky at best shooting the ball, when you factor out Dirk and look at his inferior teammates. Portland has guys on the uptick, save for the hobbled Brandon Roy, while Dallas has players scrambling to keep their heads above water. Wallace, Batum, Matthews, and Miller are playing super hard, more or less maxing out their abilities. But Dallas has a gunner in Terry who is more likely to go 5-16 than carry an offense. Jason Kidd's job is to pass to Dirk and shoot 3s, but his 3 has been way, way off this year. Brewer has played well but that's in a small sample and has been really shaky offensively thus far into his career. Beaubois is obviously committing arson on his potential. Other guys like Chandler, Marion, and Berea are solid and maxing themselves out, but I just named off 4 people are not reliable at all.
Glad I got that sorted out.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Monday, April 11, 2011
Applying the Formula
In my last post, I identified the Thunder, Bulls, and Lakers as the only teams that meet the criteria of every single champion since Watergate. The criteria real quick: at least two stars, defensive/rebounding bigs, and a defensive swingman. Once those pieces fall into place, then it comes down to degrees of each category and matchups.
*The Bulls seem unmatched in the East, with no team able to compete with their interior presence or their scrappy swingmen. Only the Heat top them in star power, but the Heat are much weaker at the other categories. Chicago's offense gets a bad rap but they've climbed lately, making their way up to 12th in offense efficiency. My question is in the playoffs, when the formula becomes the real deal, is Boozer and Noah enough star power? Does having two guys being semi-stars make up for not having a legitimate #2 like Amar'e? Boozer and Noah may have their limitations but their in the upper echelon of basketball players, and I'm leaning to them being enough supplement to Rose's star.
*The Thunder with Perkins in the lineup: 12-3 (equivalent to a 66 win team) +8.5 point differential (or, good for best in the league). 111.0 OffEff (Best in the league) 102.0 DefEff (7th in the league). That's impressive. For me, though, it comes down to how it matches up with the Lakers. The Thunder have two advantages, one huge and one less huge. The first is the Lakers can't guard Westbrook. He carved them up last year in the playoffs, before he even figured himself out. He's a great player this year and Kobe, the man who checks Russ, has slipped defensively. Dwyane Wade was blowing by Kobe on Christmas, and Westbrook is even quicker/faster. The other advantage is the bench, which is unofficially, the best 2nd unit in the league (Maynor, Cook, Harden, Collison, Mohammad). The Lakers have a solid bench, but you can't beat the best.
The Lakers have advantages, too, including likely home-court. Also, size advantage. Westbrook/Durant, Kobe/Pau is basically a wash, but the Lakers have the advantage in size. If you get really generous with your rounding-up, the Lakers have 3 guys over 6'10" with 20+ PERs. You can praise the Thunder's newfound tough frontline all you want, but they aren't better than Pau/Bynum/Odom. The important thing for the Thunder, though, is their big men can check the Lakers big men. The Lakers' bigs won't obliterate them like they probably would have with Jeff Green at the 4.
The other advantage was Artest shutting Durant basically every time he played him, but last night, Durant (with the help of Perkins' screen-setting) finally played KD-type basketball against the Lakers. If this trend of not being shut down continues, the Lakers are going to lose a huge advantage. And as we saw last night, KD/Westbrook + the bench might be enough to get the champs reeling. At this point, can you really make a sound prediction? Just enjoy watching all.
*The Bulls seem unmatched in the East, with no team able to compete with their interior presence or their scrappy swingmen. Only the Heat top them in star power, but the Heat are much weaker at the other categories. Chicago's offense gets a bad rap but they've climbed lately, making their way up to 12th in offense efficiency. My question is in the playoffs, when the formula becomes the real deal, is Boozer and Noah enough star power? Does having two guys being semi-stars make up for not having a legitimate #2 like Amar'e? Boozer and Noah may have their limitations but their in the upper echelon of basketball players, and I'm leaning to them being enough supplement to Rose's star.
*The Thunder with Perkins in the lineup: 12-3 (equivalent to a 66 win team) +8.5 point differential (or, good for best in the league). 111.0 OffEff (Best in the league) 102.0 DefEff (7th in the league). That's impressive. For me, though, it comes down to how it matches up with the Lakers. The Thunder have two advantages, one huge and one less huge. The first is the Lakers can't guard Westbrook. He carved them up last year in the playoffs, before he even figured himself out. He's a great player this year and Kobe, the man who checks Russ, has slipped defensively. Dwyane Wade was blowing by Kobe on Christmas, and Westbrook is even quicker/faster. The other advantage is the bench, which is unofficially, the best 2nd unit in the league (Maynor, Cook, Harden, Collison, Mohammad). The Lakers have a solid bench, but you can't beat the best.
The Lakers have advantages, too, including likely home-court. Also, size advantage. Westbrook/Durant, Kobe/Pau is basically a wash, but the Lakers have the advantage in size. If you get really generous with your rounding-up, the Lakers have 3 guys over 6'10" with 20+ PERs. You can praise the Thunder's newfound tough frontline all you want, but they aren't better than Pau/Bynum/Odom. The important thing for the Thunder, though, is their big men can check the Lakers big men. The Lakers' bigs won't obliterate them like they probably would have with Jeff Green at the 4.
The other advantage was Artest shutting Durant basically every time he played him, but last night, Durant (with the help of Perkins' screen-setting) finally played KD-type basketball against the Lakers. If this trend of not being shut down continues, the Lakers are going to lose a huge advantage. And as we saw last night, KD/Westbrook + the bench might be enough to get the champs reeling. At this point, can you really make a sound prediction? Just enjoy watching all.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Finding the Formula
Watch out, I'm gonna get real Bill Simmons in about five seconds.
Leaving behind PER and shooting breakdowns, I'm going to search for the contenders using a tried and true formula that sits somewhere in the basketball abstract. Basically, you need at least two stars/scorers, tough inside players who rebound, defend the paint and rim, and a perimeter guy who plays D, sacrifices shots, and takes little off the table. History shows us this time and time again, almost without fail.
The Lakers had A) Kobe, Pau B) Pau, Odom, Bynum C) Ariza/Artest. The Celtics had A) Pierce, Garnett, Allen B) Garnett, Perkins, P.J. Brown, Baby, Powe C) Posey. The Spurs had A) Duncan, Ginobili, Parker B) Duncan, Robinson, Oberto, Mohammad, Elson, Nesterovic, Rose, Horry C) Bowen. The Pistons had A) Billups, Sheed, Hamilton B) The Wallaces, Okur, Campbell C) Prince. Even the bizarreo Heat team had A) Shaq, Wade B) Shaq, Mourning, Haslem C) Posey. The early 00s Lakers had it; so did the 90s Bulls. There hasn't been one championship team in the past 20 years, not even the 04 Pistons who often are called the anomaly, who won without those 3 factors. When we look at the past couple of seasons, it shouldn't be so surprising that the Cavs kept coming up short. First of all, they had no 2nd star, which should have been the most alarming red flag. In addition, 08-09's big man rotation glacial Big Z, Andy, and Ben Wallace. That's solid, but they could have used one extra banger to offset Z's weaknesses and Andy's finesse style (as opposed to Ben's aggressive, tough style). Last year, they again had no 2nd star. But Shaq, Andy, Z, as well as Jamison and Hickson (total sieves), still were missing one extra guy down low. And we all blamed LeBron, (well, not me).
We're going to find out which of the 16 playoff teams have this formula, to see who the real contenders are.
Indiana: Stars (Scorers)- Danny Granger & N/A. No second star, mixed size (short at PF, good at C), and no real scrapper on the perimeter. As expected, they're out.
Memphis: Stars- Randolph, Allen. Size- Randolph, Gasol, Arthur. Scrappers- Allen, Young, Battier. Really, only Randolph is the star, but Tony Allen has been awesome this year. The size is mediocre at best; only because Randolph is such a good rebounder, only Gasol protects the paint. Nobody does scrappiness better than Memphis, though. Still, the first two categories come up too thin. Not enough star power on this team, and they're missing an extra banger.
Philadelphia: They score by committee, and their leading scorer, Elton Brand averages 15 a game. This team has 4 real quality players on the team, but no stars. They also have no size. They're out.
New Orleans: Stars- Paul. Size: Okafor. Scrappers: Ariza. One of each. That's not enough. David West could have added to the stars list but his ACL exploded. Too bad.
New York: Stars- Melo, Stoudemire, Billups. Size- Turiaf, Shelden Williams. Scrappers: Fields, Douglas. The Knicks have guys that meet the criteria. Unfortunately, Turiaf is nothing more than a backup on a good team, and Shelden gets DNP-CDs on good teams. They can't protect the rim/paint or enforce any kind of toughness. Fields isn't a lockdown defender and Douglas shoots a little too much though he defends well. The Knicks are simply too thin.
Portland: Stars- Aldridge, Wallace. Size: Camby, Aldridge, Przybilla. Scrappers: Batum, Wallace. Too short on star power without Roy healthy, and they could use another big man, for sure. Good scrappers, though! It's cool what Aldridge did becoming a real star, and it's nice how the Blazers stayed relevant but they're too thin.
Atlanta: Their best player isn't their best scorer, and their best scorer is inefficient and semi-washed up. That's bad news already. Horford, Smith, Collins, Zaza take care of the size, but they don't have a scrapper, unless you want to get really generous on Marvin Williams. Not a very good offensive team, because Horford is the #3 or #4 option. The Hawks are doomed.
Denver: Stars- Nene, screw it--Ty Lawson. Size- Nene, Kenyon, Birdman. Scrappers- Afflalo. Having to talk myself into Ty Lawson, who went 10-11(!) from 3, is not good for star power. And Nene is the star here but he's not one of the 20 best players in the league. The size is okay, and Afflalo fits the bill of scrapper, but the Nugs are too short on stars.
Orlando: Stars- Only Dwight. Size- Only Dwight. Scrappers- None. The Magic have nothing besides Dwight; they aren't winning.
Oklahoma City: Stars- Durant, Westbrook. Size- Perkins, Ibaka, Collison, Mohammad. Scrappers- Sefolosha. Totally fit the bill. They hit every category without a stretch.
Miami: Stars- LeBron, Wade, Bosh. Size- Z, Dampier, Bosh, Anthony, Howard, Magloire. Scrappers: None. Stars are covered, obviously, but that's very, very questionable size even though they have the bodies. Z doesn't protect anything on defense, and Dampier has been very washed-up this year rebounding. Anthony can't rebound or play a lick of offense. Howard can't defend anybody and Magloire barely gets off the bench. Bosh is Bosh--he's decent at best defensively and a solid rebounder, but no means an anchor. And given that there's no Bowen-type on the team means the Heat might only have 1 of 3 on the checklist, although that's a big 1. I'm torn on the size category. They're 5th defensively and they have the bodies, but is that good enough? I'll give them a half point, but that's all I can do. They really need a Camby, Marc Gasol, or DeAndre Jordan; one true defensive big man gives all those bodies more purpose. They're just no good rotation players at the big positions, much less starters. Haslem could help them out there if he weren't dead. R.I.P.
Dallas: Stars- Nowitzki. Size- Chandler, Haywood. Scrappers- Marion, Brewer. Outside of Chandler, who can't score a lick, they don't have anything close to a #2 for Dirk. Roddy B has been bad and Jason Terry is just okay. They're also missing another big man in the rotation to bang around in the paint. Dirk is playing with junk outside of Chandler.
Boston: Stars- Garnett, Pierce. Size- Garnett, the O'Neals, Krstic, Baby. Scrappers: Delonte. The stars category is pretty weak. In no series will the Celtics have the best player on the floor. Against Miami, they won't have the 1st or 2nd best player on the floor. Despite the Hall of Famers, star power was not their strong suit. Giving away Perkins knocks them down on size considering Krstic isn't really a protector, and the O'Neals' health are very much in question. Jeff Green doesn't scrap, though he should, and Delonte doesn't see enough minutes to swing games. Rajon Rondo finding his 5th gear would help them in a big way but he's been pretty role player-ish this year.
Los Angeles: Stars- Kobe, Pau, Bynum. Size: Bynum, Gasol, Odom. Scrappers: Artest, Barnes. Bynum has been great this year and he deserves to be a star, considering he's the 2nd best center in the league and it's not really close. The Lakers hit every check-mark.
Chicago: Stars- Rose, Boozer, Noah. Size- Noah, Gibson, Thomas, Asik. Scrappers: Deng, Brewer, Bogans. Size and scrappers are the big checkmark. Rose has the stars covered but are Boozer and Noah enough to give the Bulls full credit? Boozer scores 17.7 a game and Noah isn't much of a scorer. Deng is the 3rd leading scorer with almost 18 but he's just solid. Rose, Boozer, and Noah can't touch Miami's top 3, but is it enough to keep from compromising the advantage the Bulls have in the other 2 categories? Boozer's PER, 19.3, is a little too low to be a legitimate #2 guy on a championship contender, but remember that every team is flawed this year.
San Antonio: Stars- Duncan, Ginobili, Parker. Size- Duncan, Blair, McDyess. Scrappers: Hill? The stars are covered. They may not have the best player in most series, but 3 20+ PER guys will work fine. The size is questionable; Duncan is still good, not dominant. McDyess and Blair are too small to protect the paint much and they're missing a true scrapper. Despite the best record in the league, it seems pretty underdog-ish for San Antonio.
When you tally up the teams that hit the mark and can win the championship this year, it looks like on Chicago, Los Angeles, or Oklahoma City can win. Los Angeles is the obvious favorite, again, since they have the star advantage (and home-court) against Chicago. Chicago has more toughness on their frontline but LA has more sheer size. Artest and Barnes are the ultimate scrappers, while Chicago gets by on a revolving door of good scrappers. OKC has every mark but still come a tick behind the Lakers in all 3 categories.
LA over Chicago in 6.
Leaving behind PER and shooting breakdowns, I'm going to search for the contenders using a tried and true formula that sits somewhere in the basketball abstract. Basically, you need at least two stars/scorers, tough inside players who rebound, defend the paint and rim, and a perimeter guy who plays D, sacrifices shots, and takes little off the table. History shows us this time and time again, almost without fail.
The Lakers had A) Kobe, Pau B) Pau, Odom, Bynum C) Ariza/Artest. The Celtics had A) Pierce, Garnett, Allen B) Garnett, Perkins, P.J. Brown, Baby, Powe C) Posey. The Spurs had A) Duncan, Ginobili, Parker B) Duncan, Robinson, Oberto, Mohammad, Elson, Nesterovic, Rose, Horry C) Bowen. The Pistons had A) Billups, Sheed, Hamilton B) The Wallaces, Okur, Campbell C) Prince. Even the bizarreo Heat team had A) Shaq, Wade B) Shaq, Mourning, Haslem C) Posey. The early 00s Lakers had it; so did the 90s Bulls. There hasn't been one championship team in the past 20 years, not even the 04 Pistons who often are called the anomaly, who won without those 3 factors. When we look at the past couple of seasons, it shouldn't be so surprising that the Cavs kept coming up short. First of all, they had no 2nd star, which should have been the most alarming red flag. In addition, 08-09's big man rotation glacial Big Z, Andy, and Ben Wallace. That's solid, but they could have used one extra banger to offset Z's weaknesses and Andy's finesse style (as opposed to Ben's aggressive, tough style). Last year, they again had no 2nd star. But Shaq, Andy, Z, as well as Jamison and Hickson (total sieves), still were missing one extra guy down low. And we all blamed LeBron, (well, not me).
We're going to find out which of the 16 playoff teams have this formula, to see who the real contenders are.
Indiana: Stars (Scorers)- Danny Granger & N/A. No second star, mixed size (short at PF, good at C), and no real scrapper on the perimeter. As expected, they're out.
Memphis: Stars- Randolph, Allen. Size- Randolph, Gasol, Arthur. Scrappers- Allen, Young, Battier. Really, only Randolph is the star, but Tony Allen has been awesome this year. The size is mediocre at best; only because Randolph is such a good rebounder, only Gasol protects the paint. Nobody does scrappiness better than Memphis, though. Still, the first two categories come up too thin. Not enough star power on this team, and they're missing an extra banger.
Philadelphia: They score by committee, and their leading scorer, Elton Brand averages 15 a game. This team has 4 real quality players on the team, but no stars. They also have no size. They're out.
New Orleans: Stars- Paul. Size: Okafor. Scrappers: Ariza. One of each. That's not enough. David West could have added to the stars list but his ACL exploded. Too bad.
New York: Stars- Melo, Stoudemire, Billups. Size- Turiaf, Shelden Williams. Scrappers: Fields, Douglas. The Knicks have guys that meet the criteria. Unfortunately, Turiaf is nothing more than a backup on a good team, and Shelden gets DNP-CDs on good teams. They can't protect the rim/paint or enforce any kind of toughness. Fields isn't a lockdown defender and Douglas shoots a little too much though he defends well. The Knicks are simply too thin.
Portland: Stars- Aldridge, Wallace. Size: Camby, Aldridge, Przybilla. Scrappers: Batum, Wallace. Too short on star power without Roy healthy, and they could use another big man, for sure. Good scrappers, though! It's cool what Aldridge did becoming a real star, and it's nice how the Blazers stayed relevant but they're too thin.
Atlanta: Their best player isn't their best scorer, and their best scorer is inefficient and semi-washed up. That's bad news already. Horford, Smith, Collins, Zaza take care of the size, but they don't have a scrapper, unless you want to get really generous on Marvin Williams. Not a very good offensive team, because Horford is the #3 or #4 option. The Hawks are doomed.
Denver: Stars- Nene, screw it--Ty Lawson. Size- Nene, Kenyon, Birdman. Scrappers- Afflalo. Having to talk myself into Ty Lawson, who went 10-11(!) from 3, is not good for star power. And Nene is the star here but he's not one of the 20 best players in the league. The size is okay, and Afflalo fits the bill of scrapper, but the Nugs are too short on stars.
Orlando: Stars- Only Dwight. Size- Only Dwight. Scrappers- None. The Magic have nothing besides Dwight; they aren't winning.
Oklahoma City: Stars- Durant, Westbrook. Size- Perkins, Ibaka, Collison, Mohammad. Scrappers- Sefolosha. Totally fit the bill. They hit every category without a stretch.
Miami: Stars- LeBron, Wade, Bosh. Size- Z, Dampier, Bosh, Anthony, Howard, Magloire. Scrappers: None. Stars are covered, obviously, but that's very, very questionable size even though they have the bodies. Z doesn't protect anything on defense, and Dampier has been very washed-up this year rebounding. Anthony can't rebound or play a lick of offense. Howard can't defend anybody and Magloire barely gets off the bench. Bosh is Bosh--he's decent at best defensively and a solid rebounder, but no means an anchor. And given that there's no Bowen-type on the team means the Heat might only have 1 of 3 on the checklist, although that's a big 1. I'm torn on the size category. They're 5th defensively and they have the bodies, but is that good enough? I'll give them a half point, but that's all I can do. They really need a Camby, Marc Gasol, or DeAndre Jordan; one true defensive big man gives all those bodies more purpose. They're just no good rotation players at the big positions, much less starters. Haslem could help them out there if he weren't dead. R.I.P.
Dallas: Stars- Nowitzki. Size- Chandler, Haywood. Scrappers- Marion, Brewer. Outside of Chandler, who can't score a lick, they don't have anything close to a #2 for Dirk. Roddy B has been bad and Jason Terry is just okay. They're also missing another big man in the rotation to bang around in the paint. Dirk is playing with junk outside of Chandler.
Boston: Stars- Garnett, Pierce. Size- Garnett, the O'Neals, Krstic, Baby. Scrappers: Delonte. The stars category is pretty weak. In no series will the Celtics have the best player on the floor. Against Miami, they won't have the 1st or 2nd best player on the floor. Despite the Hall of Famers, star power was not their strong suit. Giving away Perkins knocks them down on size considering Krstic isn't really a protector, and the O'Neals' health are very much in question. Jeff Green doesn't scrap, though he should, and Delonte doesn't see enough minutes to swing games. Rajon Rondo finding his 5th gear would help them in a big way but he's been pretty role player-ish this year.
Los Angeles: Stars- Kobe, Pau, Bynum. Size: Bynum, Gasol, Odom. Scrappers: Artest, Barnes. Bynum has been great this year and he deserves to be a star, considering he's the 2nd best center in the league and it's not really close. The Lakers hit every check-mark.
Chicago: Stars- Rose, Boozer, Noah. Size- Noah, Gibson, Thomas, Asik. Scrappers: Deng, Brewer, Bogans. Size and scrappers are the big checkmark. Rose has the stars covered but are Boozer and Noah enough to give the Bulls full credit? Boozer scores 17.7 a game and Noah isn't much of a scorer. Deng is the 3rd leading scorer with almost 18 but he's just solid. Rose, Boozer, and Noah can't touch Miami's top 3, but is it enough to keep from compromising the advantage the Bulls have in the other 2 categories? Boozer's PER, 19.3, is a little too low to be a legitimate #2 guy on a championship contender, but remember that every team is flawed this year.
San Antonio: Stars- Duncan, Ginobili, Parker. Size- Duncan, Blair, McDyess. Scrappers: Hill? The stars are covered. They may not have the best player in most series, but 3 20+ PER guys will work fine. The size is questionable; Duncan is still good, not dominant. McDyess and Blair are too small to protect the paint much and they're missing a true scrapper. Despite the best record in the league, it seems pretty underdog-ish for San Antonio.
When you tally up the teams that hit the mark and can win the championship this year, it looks like on Chicago, Los Angeles, or Oklahoma City can win. Los Angeles is the obvious favorite, again, since they have the star advantage (and home-court) against Chicago. Chicago has more toughness on their frontline but LA has more sheer size. Artest and Barnes are the ultimate scrappers, while Chicago gets by on a revolving door of good scrappers. OKC has every mark but still come a tick behind the Lakers in all 3 categories.
LA over Chicago in 6.
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