Harden Rising

In 2009, when the rebuilding Thunder received the #3 pick, it was a hot-button issue for a team that could go a hundred different directions. Everyone agreed they had a lot of promise and the #3 pick could be the one to send them over the top. Nearly two seasons removed from that draft, there's been several rewrites of the perspective of it.

The Thunder of course chose Arizona State shooting guard, James Harden, and in effect, signed off on Russell Westbrook being the undisputed point guard. In 2010, Tyreke Evans stole the rookie show, posting that arbitrarily appreciated statistic of 20-5-5. Evans could have been with the Thunder and there was a lot 'what ifs' attached to the Kings combo guard. The guard-heavy draft could have also netted the Thunder Stephen Curry, Ricky Rubio, DeMar DeRozan, or Brandon Jennings. Rubio, at the moment of the Harden announcement, was the player everyone thought, "How can they pass on Rubio?" Well, now we know the Rubio story and it would have been a disaster. Not to mention, the word is he's regressed and isn't so coveted anymore. We also didn't know that Westbrook was on the verge of becoming a top 10 player.

The Tyreke Evans train has come to a screeching halt. No longer celebrated after his team failed to improve, as did he, Evans is now a little bit like damaged goods. His impressive 18.2 rookie PER has plummeted to 14.6. And despite battling Plantar Fasciitis, Evans has been a negative for the woeful Kings this season. His ball-dominating ways, questionable attitude, and poor shooting ability isn't making anybody in the world wonder (I sincerely hope not, anyway) 'what if' about Evans any longer. DeRozan has a 13.4 PER thus far into career, can't shoot, and lacks any upper-class skill besides athleticism. Maybe he wasn't a realistic option with the 3rd pick, but if he was panning out, people would be revising the draft to accommodate him. The same thing basically goes for Brandon Jennings (BJ3 is a little better than DD and has more 50 point games than Kevin Durant), except he plays Westbrook's position, so he's out.

That leaves Stephen Curry as the only legitimate competition to Harden as revisionist history's number 3 pick. Curry has an impressive 19.5 PER this season, which gives him 17.6 thus far in his career. He shoots 43.2% on 3s, which is far and away better than anything OKC has. Curry has enough combo-guard in him that if he had to, he could be an undersized 2-guard a la Jason Terry. Curry is an electrifying youngster while Harden is known much more for his potent beard than he is for his game. He also has a 15.3 career PER, including 16.4 this season, which isn't up to Curry's standards. But is Harden still the better pick? The answer actually seems obvious.

First and foremost, Curry is a sieve defensively in Golden State. And he's guarding point guards! A defensive backcourt of Curry/Westbrook trying to match-up with Kobe, Manu, and Eric Gordon in the West seems bleak at best. Harden is bigger, stronger, and more capable defensively. Given his strides made on defense, I'd rate him a 'good' defender. Also, Curry is the co #1 option on a team that doesn't give a damn. A higher Usage Rate is good for a player's PER, so it stands to reason that Curry gets to flex his PER a little bit while Harden is in a staunch pecking order behind Durant and Westbrook, especially since Harden actually has a higher True Shooting Percentage than Curry.

The revelation with Harden, who struggled early on and as recently as the trade deadline I thought the Thunder should ship him off for a missing piece, has been the departure of Jeff Green. Green was a shot-jacker, who through perceived versatility and seniority, was able to coax the role of #3 scorer for Scott Brooks. With Green and his inefficiency gone, a huge hole opened up for somebody to take shots not numbered 35 and 0. The obvious choice was Harden, but people wondered if he was ready. He was.

Since the trade, Harden is shooting 50.6% from the field and scoring 17.7 PPG. His Usage Rate keeps climbing, up to 19% now. That's legitimate #3 option material, which is most certainly what the Thunder need with Durant/Westbrook in place. I'd like to know Harden's PER since the trade, but that information is not easy to come by, and I can't calculate it. Just know is has to be flirting with the 18-19 range--more than high enough to get this team where they want to go.

Most teams want their #3 pick to carry their franchise. Harden isn' that guy and OKC knew that from the start. But they wanted a real shooting guard and they got one. And then some.

The Most Fun Argument in the NBA

(courtesy of ESPN.com)

For my money, no abstract argument is more fascinating than Derrick Rose versus Russell Westbrook. The two 3rd year point guards are so comparable it's ridiculous, but they also have stunning contrasts to one another. Kobe vs LeBron was flawed from the start. CP3 vs DWill was/is mind numbingly dumb, all the while fans only appreciate the work of those two guards, but don't watch in awe of them. Rose and Westbrook, however, make highlight reel plays that blow minds every game, which helps entrench loyal fandom. Every Internet debate usually has a logical answer opposing a narrative and an unfounded answer. LeBron's statistical prowess wasn't enough to stop the Kobe love, never mind the fact that they were/are two totally different players in many regards. Same with Paul and Williams. Duncan-Garnett was the argument that had legitimate cause for debate, but in those days, there weren't hoards of forums or Daily Dime Live to give a damn, especially concerning "boring" Duncan and the guy nobody really watched in Minnesota.

So who is the better player between Derrick and Russ? It's actually a moot point. The popular opinion police will sway towards Rose and that'll be the end of it, given how he's become the MVP front-runner playing on arguably the best team in the East. I think it's more fascinating to examine how these two can mirror each other so much but be so different than to speculate on who'd you build your team around.

Russ is 22 years old, 6'3" 187lbs and presumed to be possibly the quickest player in the league. Rose is 22 years old, 6'3" 190 lbs and is also presumed to be possibly the quickest player in the league. Both guys are so damned athletic, they attack people and dunk on them unlike we've really seen before from point guards. How many times have you seen Rose/Westbrook do something that makes you go "...whoa..." this year? It's probably at least once after every game. Who else does that? Wade, LeBron, Blake Griffin? Even Kevin Durant, Carmelo, hell even Amar'e Stoudemire can't say they do the things our two subjects do.

Let's get a full spectrum of the numbers. I'm using the advanced stats provided by Basketball-Reference, which differ slightly from John Hollinger, but the PERs are the same, so it'll be fine.

Rose: 37.7 MPG 24.7 PPG 44% FG 33.6% 3pt 84.7% FT (6.3 FTA) 4.3 RPG 7.9 APG 1.1 SPG 3.5 TPG
22.9 PER 32.2 Usage Rt 53.7% TS 6.6 Reb Rt 39.9 Ast Rt 1.5 Stl Rt 13.2% TO Rt

Westbrook: 35.0 22.1 PPG 44.3% FG 33.3% 3pt 83.6 (7.8 FTA) 4.6 RPG 8.4 APG 1.8 SPG 3.9 TPG
23.7 PER 31.7 Usage Rt 53.8% TS 7.7 Reb Rt 44.1 Ast Rt 2.6 Stl Rt 16.0 TO Rt

Too close to call anything definitively, even when we consider Westbrook to be the superior defender. Rose is better with turnovers but Westbrook is better rebounding, getting assists, and getting steals. How they get their points is another great comparative glance.

Rose: 58.6% on 6.1 FGA at the rim...40.4% on 2.6 FGA 3-9 feet...41.9% on 1.8 FGA 10-15 feet...39% on 5.1 FGA 16-23...33.6% on 4.7 3FGA

Westbrook: 60.4% FGA on 6.8 FGA at the rim...27.6% on 2.4 FGA 3-9 feet...37% on 2.3 FGA 10-15...36% on 4.5 FGA 16-23 feet...33.3% on 1.2 3FGA

Again, they are very similar, except that Rose shoots the 3 liberally, while Westbrook deploys it scarcely. Rose is the superior mid-range shooter, as expected, but Westbrook is the better finisher and also gets to the line more. Rose garnered early season praise for his improved 3 point shot, but after staying around 37%, Rose is shooting 26.7% on 3s since the All-Star break. Compared to the more judicious Westbrook who started the season shooting barely 30% from 3, is shooting 46.7% since the break.

All of these similarities, with no clear winner. But there is one major difference, and it can't be discounted. Rose is the undisputed #1 option on his team. The only real offensive threats on the Bulls (Deng, Boozer) are significantly less potent than the soon-to-be 2 time scoring champ Kevin Durant complementing Westbrook. Teams don't sleep on Westbrook because Durant is there, but the perception is in Rose's favor because he is the team leader while Westbrook is the sidekick, never mind that Rose would also be Durant's sidekick. Rose has also had to do plenty of work this season while Noah and Boozer missed time with injuries, while Westbrook has had a healthy team for the most part, though he played exceptional when Durant did miss games.

So yeah, these guys are awfully compatible. Interchangeable, even. But in some ways, they couldn't be more different.

Derrick Rose hardly ever smiles. He hardly does anything besides dribble and shoot. His interviews are probably the worst of any regularly interviewed star. His nasally voice spouting off cliches, without a hint of character.

Westbrook, however, plays with a playful bravado, like how he quails his smoking guns after he makes a 3. He plays with obvious passion on his (shooter) sleeve(s), and seems to soak up being Russell Westbrook, but without the trite arrogance of other stars.

And even though their shot charts overlap almost concurrently, their arrival to those points are much different. Rose probes, calculated, before he unleashes as quick as anybody to the basket. There's nobody better at circus reverse layups than Rose; he'll fit through even the smallest cracks. His floater is also a weapon, but even with the "wow" shots, Rose is a good-not great-finisher. He seems to prefer slithering through to attempt a spinning layup than going strong to get to the line. With his quick-strike, slick approach, Rose really is like a cobra.

Then Westbrook is a bull. He just goes. Everything else be damned. There's a couple of pet pull-up shots that he might try, but Westbrook just attacks and sees what happens. There's not as many crazy lay-up attempts. He wants to dunk on people or get fouled trying. He lacks Rose's in between game, but Rose lacks his assertiveness. Westbrook gets labeled reckless at times. Sometimes it does feel that way, but the production gets there. It's more exciting, but when something goes wrong with Westbrook, it tends to look awful, while Rose rides a more stable balance.

Rose's robotic demeanor is apparently as productive as Westbrook's frenzy. I prefer watching Westbrook, but that doesn't make him better. With the Thunder looking more and more like true title contenders post-trade, the narrative may be manifesting itself to NBA fans. Westbrook could steal the limelight if the Thunder do enough damage, but Rose will be the king if they win it all (I think they have great chance). Either way, we're watching two of the most exciting, and productive, players in the league continue to improve.