In credit to last night's announcing crew for Heat-Knicks, the always good Hubie Brown/Mike Tirico combo, pointed out Chauncey Billups was not a mere throw in to sweeten the Carmelo deal, but was actually key. Basically when it comes to announcing crews, you don't want them to screw up the game; don't be annoying, don't fall back on tired cliches. What you say might not always be conducive with stats, but whatever, the educated audience understands the limitations. So while I didn't agree with everything Hubie said last night, I did appreciate his explanation and rationale behind his statements, rather than "Billups is a solid veteran" tired bullshit. What I did agree with was that Billups makes this deal work for the Knicks, and allows them to be competitive, instead of Melo/Amare and a junk-pile. I watched the game with a friend, who echoed the sentiments of my cousin who texted me when the deal went down, which were "Billups is old and sucks/not very good." But Billups sparked a 2nd quarter run that got the Knicks back in the game, as well as hit a ballsy deep 3 that put the Knicks up for good. One game means little, but hopefully it reminds people, oh yeah, he IS good.
I looked more into Billups' career, the one with the trite late-bloomer tagline I've heard about ever since he joined the Pistons. When people who aren't Hubie Brown talk about Billups, they aren't good enough at their job to come up with anything better than "he just wins! His numbers won't blow you away, nor will his athleticism, but he's a winner!" Do you know why he wins? Because he's good! He has good numbers. Since the 3 point line was installed (a big part of his game) in 1979-80, of the point guards to play at least 300 games, Billups is 10th in PER. Those claiming PER isn't the end-all method are right, and that's because PER doesn't account for defense. Well, in that regard, Billups gets screwed because he's one of the best defensive PGs of his generation, along with a younger Jason Kidd and Gary Payton. The list of 3-point era PGs goes as follows:
1. Chris Paul
2. Magic Johnson
3. John Stockton
4. Kevin Johnson
5. Steve Nash
6. Gilbert Arenas
7. Terrell Brandon
8. Mark Price
9. Sam Cassell
10. Chauncey Billups
You could make a convincing argument Billups should jump everybody below Stockton if you accounted for his defensive prowess. 1.2 PER points separate Billups and Nash, but Nash was/is nowhere near Billups' area code defensively.
When Billups was being bounced from Boston, to Toronto, to Denver, to Minnesota over the course of 4 seasons, he posted respective PERs of 15.4, 11.1, 15.1, 10.5, 14.1. You're doing okay when you hit the 15 range, but that isn't star material, and it's borderline starter material. In those early years, Billups struggled with efficiency, and consistently assisting teammates.
But when he became viable in Detroit. Ironically, his worst year in Detroit was his least efficient, when they won the championship. Still, his PER was 18.6. His statistical prime was a 3 year stretch of 23.4, 21.3, 23.6 PERs. His True Shooting Percentage frequented in the 59% range, peaking at 62%. He's traditionally good in regards to turnovers, Usage Rate, and posting solid Assist Rates. So his teams don't win because he's heady or has some mystic qualities to will his team to victory; he wins because he's posted a 19.1 career PER!
So there you go. More than a throw-in. A top historically good PG, arguably top 10, still playing at a high level. He's most certainly a valuable commodity that may have the Knicks in a better position than some realized.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Tracking the Knicks
I wanted to keep the numbers on the Knicks pre-and post-trade. This isn't a perfect comparison, but the main idea will be intact. I do this half-snarkily, I'll admit. While I am on record liking the trade, I'm also on record saying Carmelo isn't elite, so maybe we'll be able to glean something from the arrival of Carmelo.
Pre-trade: 28-26 +.4 point differential.
Thus far: 1-1 0.0 point differential.
Currently 7th in offense (107.6) 20th in defense (106.1)
The offense has been a bit better, while the defense has been a tad worse. Only two games, but I'll keep coming back to this.
Pre-trade: 28-26 +.4 point differential.
Thus far: 1-1 0.0 point differential.
Currently 7th in offense (107.6) 20th in defense (106.1)
The offense has been a bit better, while the defense has been a tad worse. Only two games, but I'll keep coming back to this.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Looking at the Trades; Apologizing to the Thunder
One hell of a trade deadline for the NBA. I'll go through these roughly as the appear on NBA.com, while ignoring the trades that really mean nothing like the Cavs picking up Luke Harangody and Semih Erden.
-The Blazers getting Gerald Wallace was a coup. God, I hate to write this but really, it's a shame Roy and Oden aren't healthy, or else this might be the favorite in the West. They gave up two players who are pretty insignificant to their playoff run, and they got somebody who rebounds like hell, plays defense like hell, and has a a pretty solid offensive game. They might make a little noise, even if they aren't with the top teams. Also, I'll use this space to say good job to LaMarcus Aldridge, who finally got his shit together and turned into a really good Power Forward.
For the Bobcats? What can you do? They're a middling team that needed to shed salary. They'll be trying to restart with a slashed payroll, but the draft picks they got were very poor, with limited talent in return.
- The Dragic/Brooks swap means nothing to nobody. Two volume point guards with dubious passing instincts.
- Battier/Thabeet is interesting if nothing else. Battier returns to Memphis to beef up the Grizzlies' improved defense, and the Rockets add a 7 footer for a guy they weren't keeping anyway. Don't expect out of Thabeet, though.
- Bibby/Jo. Crawford for Hinrich. Basically the Hawks looked to improve their perimeter defense by adding Hinrich. Bibby is 2 points worse in PER and worlds worse defending, so the Hawks did okay there, but it won't win them anything against MIA/BOS/ORL/CHI. Giving up on Jordan Crawford's potential was maybe a little dumb, but the hell knows what he'll become. An inefficient gunner, perhaps? Who cares.
- Baron for Mo/Moon. This is a good trade for the Clippers. Mo will stretch the floor and play a complementary role to Blake and Gordon. Moon will add some perimeter defense. They also shed Baron's awful contract and lose a lottery pick, which the Clippers didn't value. Who cares about picking 10th in a weak draft? The Cavs do. Baron's contract is almost irrelevant. If things go well for the Cavs, they wouldn't be viable by the time his contract ran out, anyway. They won't sign anybody in that time. They're going to use the lottery picks, including their potential #1 to mine for a hidden superstar. There's so much uncertainty in the draft, but who knows, maybe something special is there. It's really all they can do, especially since they'll likely be a very high lottery pick again next year.
- Landry for Thornton. I love this trade for NO. Chris Paul should be able to reenergize the former per-minute god, who was mired in Sacramento's awful coaching and rotations. I like Marcus Thornton a lot, but his shot has been terrible this season and it was getting excruciating trying to play him alongside Trevor Ariza. Thornton probably has a 6th man trophy in his future ala Jason Terry, which the Kings should be hopeful for. The Hornets, when Emeka Okafor gets back, shouldn't be slept on, due to an effective frontcourt trio, and of course Paul. The Hornet's bench has been terrible, so Landry will fill in very nicely.
- Perkins/Robinson for Green/Krstic + Mohammad. Good for the Thunder! Last week, I wrote an article basically laying it to the Thunder for sitting back and doing nothing while Jeff Green obliterated their interior defense. This is a brilliant trade, coupled with the addition of Nazr Mohammad, and basically Sam Presti was who he thought he was. I won't rehash old material, but with Green, the Thunder had an undersized, middling defensive frontcourt. With Perkins and Mohammad, coupled with sliding Ibaka and Collison to the 4 permanently, the Thunder have inexplicably become arguably the best defensive frontcourt. Skeptics claim they lose Green's spacing on offense, but I say fuck that. Now Harden should be able to fully absorb the #3 role, instead of splitting shots with the inaccurate Green. If anything, it might help the offense! Ibaka has more capacity to put up 10 points than people think. The Thunder needed defense way more than they needed Green clanking 3s, and now I think they're a legitimate title threat. Post scoring is overrated when your three top perimeter scorers all attack and get to the free throw line.
For the Celtics, I don't know what to make of it, mainly because I don't know what Jeff Green is capable of in his true small forward role. Maybe he flourishes and gives the Celtics another wrinkle and gear offensively. Maybe he stays below average and all they did was downgrade interior defense. It doesn't break this team, but it's not exactly a positive to be losing Perkin's D, especially on Dwight Howard and potentially the Lakers. Green is really going to decide this deal, from the Celtics perspective.
- Deron for Favors/Harris+Melo/Billups for Gallinari, Chandler, Mozgov, Felton. I combine these because both the Nets and the Knicks are in similar positions, with both sides arguing the same points. One side says you gotta have stars, the other side says, now the teams are hamstrung. I do know that the Nets weren't doing a damn thing with Harris/Lopez/Favors. Ditto for Stoudemire and the benevolent role players. We saw this with the Cavs the past few years, and I've seen LeBron James, and Amare Stoudemire is no LeBron James. If LeBron was going to war with a handful of 15-17 PER role players and coming up short, how the hell were the Knicks going to build with Amare and change? Signing him this summer wasn't viable because Melo wanted an extension now, and Melo was available. If they waited two more years, just to see what Deron/CP3/Howard were going to do, there's still no guarantee that they could get those guys. Melo was a guarantee that he wanted to be a Knick. Melo may not be the transcendent player that CP3 or Howard are, but he's a top 20 player--a 21 PER guy. Combined with Stoudemire, that's something. That doesn't win you a title, but now the Knicks have 2 top 20 guys, which increases the chances of luring talent in the future. They may not win a championship but Melo/Stoudemire and scraps is still better than Stoudemire and role players. In addition to that, Billups is still a top 10 point guard. Landry Fields is an impressive and integral role playing rookie, and Ronny Turiaf is solid. That's actually a really good starting lineup, it's just that the bench is so bad. It's up to them to wisely build around these guys, but they absolutely had to land Melo, because the league is too good not to have true stars.
The same thing goes for New Jersey, even if it's bleaker because Lopez is no Stoudemire. You have to get stars, because they can carry you, even with a shoddy roster. No damage is going to be done with Lopez/Harris/Favors. Again, it's up to the Nets to be savvy enough to add players around Deron, but the star power is in place, at the very least. Had to do that deal.
For Denver and Utah, these were necessary moves to retool on the fly. Denver slashed its salary, added young potential in Gallo, a solid veteran in Felton, and got added some draft choices. Utah got a young big in Favors, who has potential, added draft picks as well. The problem is the Jazz are trying to retool through the draft and they just drafted Gordon Hayward, so am I supposed to be excited about 2 lottery picks? There's buzz about them taking Jimmer Fredette, because Utah loves white guys, and I'm sure they'll work him to one of those picks. That'd be a disaster. I fully expect the Jazz to encounter the dark ages, while I'm more hopeful the Nuggets will stay relevant.
All around, great trade deadline. I have to say the Thunder are the big winners for immediately becoming a contender, but kudos to the Nets and Knicks for brightening their future, even if a lot of work is still to be done.
-The Blazers getting Gerald Wallace was a coup. God, I hate to write this but really, it's a shame Roy and Oden aren't healthy, or else this might be the favorite in the West. They gave up two players who are pretty insignificant to their playoff run, and they got somebody who rebounds like hell, plays defense like hell, and has a a pretty solid offensive game. They might make a little noise, even if they aren't with the top teams. Also, I'll use this space to say good job to LaMarcus Aldridge, who finally got his shit together and turned into a really good Power Forward.
For the Bobcats? What can you do? They're a middling team that needed to shed salary. They'll be trying to restart with a slashed payroll, but the draft picks they got were very poor, with limited talent in return.
- The Dragic/Brooks swap means nothing to nobody. Two volume point guards with dubious passing instincts.
- Battier/Thabeet is interesting if nothing else. Battier returns to Memphis to beef up the Grizzlies' improved defense, and the Rockets add a 7 footer for a guy they weren't keeping anyway. Don't expect out of Thabeet, though.
- Bibby/Jo. Crawford for Hinrich. Basically the Hawks looked to improve their perimeter defense by adding Hinrich. Bibby is 2 points worse in PER and worlds worse defending, so the Hawks did okay there, but it won't win them anything against MIA/BOS/ORL/CHI. Giving up on Jordan Crawford's potential was maybe a little dumb, but the hell knows what he'll become. An inefficient gunner, perhaps? Who cares.
- Baron for Mo/Moon. This is a good trade for the Clippers. Mo will stretch the floor and play a complementary role to Blake and Gordon. Moon will add some perimeter defense. They also shed Baron's awful contract and lose a lottery pick, which the Clippers didn't value. Who cares about picking 10th in a weak draft? The Cavs do. Baron's contract is almost irrelevant. If things go well for the Cavs, they wouldn't be viable by the time his contract ran out, anyway. They won't sign anybody in that time. They're going to use the lottery picks, including their potential #1 to mine for a hidden superstar. There's so much uncertainty in the draft, but who knows, maybe something special is there. It's really all they can do, especially since they'll likely be a very high lottery pick again next year.
- Landry for Thornton. I love this trade for NO. Chris Paul should be able to reenergize the former per-minute god, who was mired in Sacramento's awful coaching and rotations. I like Marcus Thornton a lot, but his shot has been terrible this season and it was getting excruciating trying to play him alongside Trevor Ariza. Thornton probably has a 6th man trophy in his future ala Jason Terry, which the Kings should be hopeful for. The Hornets, when Emeka Okafor gets back, shouldn't be slept on, due to an effective frontcourt trio, and of course Paul. The Hornet's bench has been terrible, so Landry will fill in very nicely.
- Perkins/Robinson for Green/Krstic + Mohammad. Good for the Thunder! Last week, I wrote an article basically laying it to the Thunder for sitting back and doing nothing while Jeff Green obliterated their interior defense. This is a brilliant trade, coupled with the addition of Nazr Mohammad, and basically Sam Presti was who he thought he was. I won't rehash old material, but with Green, the Thunder had an undersized, middling defensive frontcourt. With Perkins and Mohammad, coupled with sliding Ibaka and Collison to the 4 permanently, the Thunder have inexplicably become arguably the best defensive frontcourt. Skeptics claim they lose Green's spacing on offense, but I say fuck that. Now Harden should be able to fully absorb the #3 role, instead of splitting shots with the inaccurate Green. If anything, it might help the offense! Ibaka has more capacity to put up 10 points than people think. The Thunder needed defense way more than they needed Green clanking 3s, and now I think they're a legitimate title threat. Post scoring is overrated when your three top perimeter scorers all attack and get to the free throw line.
For the Celtics, I don't know what to make of it, mainly because I don't know what Jeff Green is capable of in his true small forward role. Maybe he flourishes and gives the Celtics another wrinkle and gear offensively. Maybe he stays below average and all they did was downgrade interior defense. It doesn't break this team, but it's not exactly a positive to be losing Perkin's D, especially on Dwight Howard and potentially the Lakers. Green is really going to decide this deal, from the Celtics perspective.
- Deron for Favors/Harris+Melo/Billups for Gallinari, Chandler, Mozgov, Felton. I combine these because both the Nets and the Knicks are in similar positions, with both sides arguing the same points. One side says you gotta have stars, the other side says, now the teams are hamstrung. I do know that the Nets weren't doing a damn thing with Harris/Lopez/Favors. Ditto for Stoudemire and the benevolent role players. We saw this with the Cavs the past few years, and I've seen LeBron James, and Amare Stoudemire is no LeBron James. If LeBron was going to war with a handful of 15-17 PER role players and coming up short, how the hell were the Knicks going to build with Amare and change? Signing him this summer wasn't viable because Melo wanted an extension now, and Melo was available. If they waited two more years, just to see what Deron/CP3/Howard were going to do, there's still no guarantee that they could get those guys. Melo was a guarantee that he wanted to be a Knick. Melo may not be the transcendent player that CP3 or Howard are, but he's a top 20 player--a 21 PER guy. Combined with Stoudemire, that's something. That doesn't win you a title, but now the Knicks have 2 top 20 guys, which increases the chances of luring talent in the future. They may not win a championship but Melo/Stoudemire and scraps is still better than Stoudemire and role players. In addition to that, Billups is still a top 10 point guard. Landry Fields is an impressive and integral role playing rookie, and Ronny Turiaf is solid. That's actually a really good starting lineup, it's just that the bench is so bad. It's up to them to wisely build around these guys, but they absolutely had to land Melo, because the league is too good not to have true stars.
The same thing goes for New Jersey, even if it's bleaker because Lopez is no Stoudemire. You have to get stars, because they can carry you, even with a shoddy roster. No damage is going to be done with Lopez/Harris/Favors. Again, it's up to the Nets to be savvy enough to add players around Deron, but the star power is in place, at the very least. Had to do that deal.
For Denver and Utah, these were necessary moves to retool on the fly. Denver slashed its salary, added young potential in Gallo, a solid veteran in Felton, and got added some draft choices. Utah got a young big in Favors, who has potential, added draft picks as well. The problem is the Jazz are trying to retool through the draft and they just drafted Gordon Hayward, so am I supposed to be excited about 2 lottery picks? There's buzz about them taking Jimmer Fredette, because Utah loves white guys, and I'm sure they'll work him to one of those picks. That'd be a disaster. I fully expect the Jazz to encounter the dark ages, while I'm more hopeful the Nuggets will stay relevant.
All around, great trade deadline. I have to say the Thunder are the big winners for immediately becoming a contender, but kudos to the Nets and Knicks for brightening their future, even if a lot of work is still to be done.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Looking Close at Melo
Within the week, maybe even this weekend, we're going to know the fate of Carmelo Anthony--be it remaining a Nugget, or becoming a Knick or Net. Melo has always been one of the biggest names in the NBA, and now, he's virtually hijacked NBA newsfeeds. The Knicks and Nets are drooling at the prospects of landing one of the most coveted scorers in the league, but I think there's an understood acknowledgement among even semi-invested NBA fans that Melo isn't quite elite. We know the names: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Howard, Durant (not to mention the fact Chris Paul should be recognized in that category but isn't). Melo isn't one of those guys, and thankfully, no one really has to write the fact that he isn't since we all get it at this point.
What, though, is actually on Melo's resume that flashes his credentials and also damns him the elite? Let's break it down.
The Credentials:
This is easy stuff; Melo is one of the best in the league at using possessions, which makes him a legitimate lead man. He's averaged 28.4% Usage Rate per season since coming into the league. He does so with a solid (roughly league average) TS%, with a career mark of 54.4%. He's reasonable in regards to Turnover Rate and is a good positional rebounder, especially during the last few years.
In credit to Melo, who can seem aloof and mercurial at times, he consistently leads (or comes close) to leading the league in shots at the rim, instead of settling for jumpers and cashing checks. Melo is good at the rim 59-61%, if not spectacular, and he's rewarded by averaging a career 7.9 FTs a game. And unlike LeBron, he knows his limitations as a 3 point shooter--2.3 a game in his career (31.1%), while LeBron is at 4.2 at 33%. For scorers, long 2s are just a part of the game, because lanes get too clogged to get to the rim every time, so Melo's high number of long 2s are a necessary evil, but he typically shoots a solid 40% from that spot. Melo is also, statistically, the most clutch player in the NBA. He shoots extremely well on game-tying/winning shots in the final seconds.
The Damners:
Melo is kind of a ball-hog. Or at least an unskilled passer. His per season Assist Rate is a paltry 10.6. It's safe to say he doesn't do the ole "make his teammates better," other than the natural attention he draws from defenses. For somebody like Durant, a bad AR makes sense, because Russell Westbrook dominates the ball and Durant gets most of his baskets assisted. But Melo is one of the biggest shot creators in the league, akin to LeBron, but unlike LeBron, Carmelo pounds the ball for himself, not for others. With only observational evidence available, Melo is also a bad defender. He never transformed his athleticism into defensive prowess like LeBron or Wade.
Let's also damn one of his credentials. Durant is a career 57.6% TS, LeBron is 56.3, Wade is 56.6. Sure, Melo is in the neighborhood of those guys, but he's still at least 2% lower, not to mention, LeBron and Wade have gaudy assist numbers throughout their careers.
He's also quietly not very durable. Out of 631 possible games for him to play in, Melo has played in 89.4% of them. LeBron has played 95.6% of them. He's missed 10+ games in 3 of his past 4 seasons, and he's already missed 7 this season.
The bottom line crevice in Melo is his PER, without even considering his poor defense. His career PER is 20.2, which is good player material, bur not "franchise guy" level. 24-25 PER is ideal for a true lead man. LeBron's career PER is 26.8, and Wade's 25.6. Melo's best year was a year ago, which was 22.2 PER (he's also had 22.1, and 22). Even at his best, Melo isn't quite at a level where he can be your #1 guy leading you to a championship.
Credit the Knicks for not throwing the works at the Nuggets to obtain him; it appears Donnie Walsh knows that Amare and Melo and scraps aren't enough to compete in the East. I'm not quite sure why Melo is craving to play on a team that will certainly be worse than the one he's on now, or even considering playing on a hopeless team in New Jersey. But there it is, Melo's resume, which is pretty checkered. Ultimately, he's not going to swing anything significantly at the top of the league.
What, though, is actually on Melo's resume that flashes his credentials and also damns him the elite? Let's break it down.
The Credentials:
This is easy stuff; Melo is one of the best in the league at using possessions, which makes him a legitimate lead man. He's averaged 28.4% Usage Rate per season since coming into the league. He does so with a solid (roughly league average) TS%, with a career mark of 54.4%. He's reasonable in regards to Turnover Rate and is a good positional rebounder, especially during the last few years.
In credit to Melo, who can seem aloof and mercurial at times, he consistently leads (or comes close) to leading the league in shots at the rim, instead of settling for jumpers and cashing checks. Melo is good at the rim 59-61%, if not spectacular, and he's rewarded by averaging a career 7.9 FTs a game. And unlike LeBron, he knows his limitations as a 3 point shooter--2.3 a game in his career (31.1%), while LeBron is at 4.2 at 33%. For scorers, long 2s are just a part of the game, because lanes get too clogged to get to the rim every time, so Melo's high number of long 2s are a necessary evil, but he typically shoots a solid 40% from that spot. Melo is also, statistically, the most clutch player in the NBA. He shoots extremely well on game-tying/winning shots in the final seconds.
The Damners:
Melo is kind of a ball-hog. Or at least an unskilled passer. His per season Assist Rate is a paltry 10.6. It's safe to say he doesn't do the ole "make his teammates better," other than the natural attention he draws from defenses. For somebody like Durant, a bad AR makes sense, because Russell Westbrook dominates the ball and Durant gets most of his baskets assisted. But Melo is one of the biggest shot creators in the league, akin to LeBron, but unlike LeBron, Carmelo pounds the ball for himself, not for others. With only observational evidence available, Melo is also a bad defender. He never transformed his athleticism into defensive prowess like LeBron or Wade.
Let's also damn one of his credentials. Durant is a career 57.6% TS, LeBron is 56.3, Wade is 56.6. Sure, Melo is in the neighborhood of those guys, but he's still at least 2% lower, not to mention, LeBron and Wade have gaudy assist numbers throughout their careers.
He's also quietly not very durable. Out of 631 possible games for him to play in, Melo has played in 89.4% of them. LeBron has played 95.6% of them. He's missed 10+ games in 3 of his past 4 seasons, and he's already missed 7 this season.
The bottom line crevice in Melo is his PER, without even considering his poor defense. His career PER is 20.2, which is good player material, bur not "franchise guy" level. 24-25 PER is ideal for a true lead man. LeBron's career PER is 26.8, and Wade's 25.6. Melo's best year was a year ago, which was 22.2 PER (he's also had 22.1, and 22). Even at his best, Melo isn't quite at a level where he can be your #1 guy leading you to a championship.
Credit the Knicks for not throwing the works at the Nuggets to obtain him; it appears Donnie Walsh knows that Amare and Melo and scraps aren't enough to compete in the East. I'm not quite sure why Melo is craving to play on a team that will certainly be worse than the one he's on now, or even considering playing on a hopeless team in New Jersey. But there it is, Melo's resume, which is pretty checkered. Ultimately, he's not going to swing anything significantly at the top of the league.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
John Wall Thus Far
Amazingly, the John Wall Watch has been pretty tame this year, no doubt due to Blake Griffin obliterating all things rookie-related. I wanted to look at Wall's season thus far, to look for trends and comparisons, in hopes to get a feel for where he is going. I was worried Wall was all athlete, raw skill coming into the draft and I got curious to see if that has any play so far. Starting with the basics, Wall is 4th in rookie PER with a 15.43, behind (my boy!) Paul George and Ed Davis. Already, Wall has established a solid player rating, unlike 2nd pick Evan Turner, who has an abysmal 10.36 PER.
Wall's strengths are in his passing ability, which actually kind of surprises me. I wasn't sure how his vision would be, if it would be elite level. But he's already 10th in Assist Rate, which is doubly impressive when you consider he plays with some really iffy basketball players. He's also good at using possessions, as his 23.4% Usage Rate would indicate. Wall is solid in terms of steals, and is a solid rebounding point guard. He gets to line 4.8 times a game, which is decent, especially for a rookie.
Wall's weakness, though, are awfully glaring. He has a horrendous 48.7% TS% and 13.1 Turnover Rate (League median is 10.7). He forces a lot of action, which helps him get assists but also costs possessions at a pretty high rate. He struggles, as most rookies do, at the defensive end. The most interesting thing about Wall is his maligned jump shot, presumably the biggest thing holding him back. He is shooting 33% eFG on jump shots, which is really bad. The good news is, Wall attacks the basket frequently and shoots a strong 61% at the rim, which is higher than comparative players like Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. Though Rose is someone fans might point to and say 'he improved his jumper, so can Wall!' it's important to note that Rose still had a good jump shot, even though he couldn't hit a 3. Even Westbrook had a sturdier jump shot as a rookie, even though it was (and still is ) rocky. So just because conventional wisdom is that a jump shot can be worked on, at some point 33% is alarming and might not be a quick fix. It's hard to be great without a jump shot.
The silver lining is that Wall is a point guard, a typical slow-starting position. Steve Nash wasn't a viable starting PG until his 4th year. Jason Kidd started out solid, but wasn't a star until his 4th year. Chauncey Billups took until his 6th year to become a star, and bordered on below average for his first 4 years. Deron Williams was unbearably bad his rookie season before becoming viable in year 2, and a star in year 3. The same for Rondo. Only Kidd, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and Chris Paul started out strong (relative to rookies, though Paul was great from the beginning). Of those, only Paul was 'star' material in year 2. So, Wall is doing things right by getting off to a solid start, but PGs usually need 3-4 years before they even reach 20 PER.
As of now, due to Wall's 15.43 rookie PER, it seems safe to assume he has a 20 PER season somewhere in his future. But for Wall to reach his potential of being a franchise player, he has to slave away at becoming a viable jump shooter. Eventually, he'll learn to increase his Assist Rate while managing Turnover Rate. He'll learn how to play good defense. But Wall must learn, first and foremost, how to shoot the damn ball.
Wall's strengths are in his passing ability, which actually kind of surprises me. I wasn't sure how his vision would be, if it would be elite level. But he's already 10th in Assist Rate, which is doubly impressive when you consider he plays with some really iffy basketball players. He's also good at using possessions, as his 23.4% Usage Rate would indicate. Wall is solid in terms of steals, and is a solid rebounding point guard. He gets to line 4.8 times a game, which is decent, especially for a rookie.
Wall's weakness, though, are awfully glaring. He has a horrendous 48.7% TS% and 13.1 Turnover Rate (League median is 10.7). He forces a lot of action, which helps him get assists but also costs possessions at a pretty high rate. He struggles, as most rookies do, at the defensive end. The most interesting thing about Wall is his maligned jump shot, presumably the biggest thing holding him back. He is shooting 33% eFG on jump shots, which is really bad. The good news is, Wall attacks the basket frequently and shoots a strong 61% at the rim, which is higher than comparative players like Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. Though Rose is someone fans might point to and say 'he improved his jumper, so can Wall!' it's important to note that Rose still had a good jump shot, even though he couldn't hit a 3. Even Westbrook had a sturdier jump shot as a rookie, even though it was (and still is ) rocky. So just because conventional wisdom is that a jump shot can be worked on, at some point 33% is alarming and might not be a quick fix. It's hard to be great without a jump shot.
The silver lining is that Wall is a point guard, a typical slow-starting position. Steve Nash wasn't a viable starting PG until his 4th year. Jason Kidd started out solid, but wasn't a star until his 4th year. Chauncey Billups took until his 6th year to become a star, and bordered on below average for his first 4 years. Deron Williams was unbearably bad his rookie season before becoming viable in year 2, and a star in year 3. The same for Rondo. Only Kidd, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and Chris Paul started out strong (relative to rookies, though Paul was great from the beginning). Of those, only Paul was 'star' material in year 2. So, Wall is doing things right by getting off to a solid start, but PGs usually need 3-4 years before they even reach 20 PER.
As of now, due to Wall's 15.43 rookie PER, it seems safe to assume he has a 20 PER season somewhere in his future. But for Wall to reach his potential of being a franchise player, he has to slave away at becoming a viable jump shooter. Eventually, he'll learn to increase his Assist Rate while managing Turnover Rate. He'll learn how to play good defense. But Wall must learn, first and foremost, how to shoot the damn ball.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Questions Rising for the Thunder
Arguably no organization has garnered more positive press than the Oklahoma City Thunder. Analysts have become enamored with their shrewd way of stockpiling draft picks, young talent, and managing their budget. General Manager Sam Presti and head coach Scott Brooks preach the importance of character and growing together. People fall over themselves praising the abstract, blue-collar approach to team-building, especially in contrast to the evil conglomerate of the Miami Heat. It makes for a nice story, but now, I'm starting to wonder if Presti is sitting back watching his garden grow, or if he's still working like the quiet genius he's portrayed to be, in order to patch up the bare spots of the Thunder.
Let's give Presti his due credit, for drafting Russell Westbrook, a controversial pick, and Serge Ibaka, a late-round project. We can't give him props for Kevin Durant; he lucked into the 2nd pick via the lottery, and any other team in the league would have taken Durant. He drafted in a spot where you're supposed to get a great player and he got one.
If you're going to praise Presti for seeing the value in the raw talents of Westbrook and Ibaka, you have to admit there were flaws, even if we pretend like they aren't any. The Jeff Green pick was a massive miss. In moderate defense of that, the next picks were Yi, Corey Brewer, and Brendan Wright--some awful basketball players. However, Jeff Green didn't make sense from the outset given that he was a "tweener" forward, and they had just drafted Durant. More damning, Joakim Noah was on the board and went ninth, after Wright. Can you imagine Noah as a Thunder, flying around on defense, rebounding, and generally doing all of the things that make him a terrific center? A title contender they would be! Green is the bane of the Thunder's existence and is a constant question mark from any angle (Brooks', Presti's, the team).
In an ongoing bout of poor analysis, Green gets mentioned in national telecasts as the 3rd guy, the guy who "doesn't do one thing great, but does everything well." Listen for it. You'll hear it. Somehow this team and Green especially has earned some undue respect, when really, Green should be getting called out for his play, or Brooks' insistence of playing him. In his four seasons, Green is averaging 14.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.9 turnovers. He's a career 44.2% shooter, 33.9% from 3, and 76.9% FT. Unimpressive considering he's averaged 34.6 MPG, including 37+ this year and last year. He's regressed in PER, down to 12.7, which John Hollinger considers a shade below being "in the rotation." I'm assuming being in the rotation doesn't mean playing almost 40 minutes a game.
Night after night, in a league overflowing with power forwards, the Thunder are getting waxed by opposing PFs, in large part due to Green unable to defend them. He's too small and too soft to provide any resistance. He's not a very good player, and the Thunder win in spite of him.
But Green is being miscast. He's clearly not a PF. Even if his body could have told us that, his game has demonstrated over the past 4 years that he's a small forward. He can't be faulted for playing the position his coach tells him too. Ultimately, it's up the coaches and the front-office to correct ongoing fallacies within the team, and Green's role is the biggest aperture. The most absurd thing is, Serge Ibaka is sitting right there, begging to sop up those porous minutes. Ibaka is 3rd in PER, is clearly growing, whereas Green as plateaued, and has the mindset to be a big man, even if he's only a little bigger than Green. Ibaka does a good job cooling off red-hot PFs who are slaying Green, while swatting shots at one of the best rates in the league. Ibaka also has a surprisingly good 16-18 foot jump-shot, which is more than Green can boast, so they can't act as if Green has an offensive advantage (Ibaka is shooting 45% from 16-23, Green is shooting 39%). Fans can't understand why Ibaka isn't getting more minutes, to the point they're frustrated.
The Thunder keep preaching how they need to get their 48-minute defense in order, like it was a year ago, but Scott Brooks is reluctant to make any adjustments. I get the feeling that Brooks imagines his team descending into apocalyptic chaos if he made a change, so he sticks with familiarity. I recently read a piece that suggested that the Thunder's defense was slightly overachieving last year (and it was only 9th in the league to begin with), and that regression had to be expected. They aren't a great rebounding team and they don't defend the rim very well. Opposing teams shoot 59.6% in the paint (not including dunks or tips), and 44.6% in jumpers. Compare that to the Celtics stifling defense who allow teams to shoot a nearly-identical 44.1% on jumpers, but allow 52.7% in the paint. Also, the Thunder are allowing a whopping 19.6 PER to opposing PFs, the Celtics just 14.9. They're trying to get back to a level they aren't capable of. Westbrook, Sefolosha, Durant, and Harden are nice wing complements to a defensive scheme, but defense is about protecting the paint. Nick Collison is their best defensive big, but he's too small to resist post-ups or to handedly grab defensive rebounds. Ibaka is long and athletic as can hell, but he still has to refine his defensive instincts to keep from fouling, and understanding help defense. Green can't guard anybody, except maybe small forwards. And Nenad Krstic is solid, but far from an anchor, though he isn't a sieve.
There seems to be too much laissez faire-ness going on in Oklahoma City. They keep with the tagline that they're a young team and patience is in order. But as Bill Simmons has pointed out in his podcast, they have two of the best ten players in the league and they can't guarantee they'll have this window forever. The Thunder management like to think Durant/Westbrook will be around for 15 years, so there's no need to do anything rash, but the NBA is fickle. Injuries can derail a career, and these two aren't immune to a Grant Hill/Penny Hardaway future, or even the ongoing Brandon Roy saga. The NBA title is up for grabs, especially with uncertainty in the powers of the West. The Lakers look a step slow, and the Spurs are vulnerable, despite their robust record. Why wouldn't the Thunder try to seize the West this year? Right now, even carrying a 50-win pace, the Thunder have an underwhelming +1.7 point differential. That suggests they aren't a serious contender, which is a disservice to Durant and Westbrook. Currently, James Harden and Ibaka are being underused, not maximizing the talent the Thunder have available. Thabo Sefolosha isn't defending with the fervor he did a year ago, so he's on the court, practically leaving the Thunder to play 4-on-5 on offense. Still, Sef gets a couple more minutes a game than Harden, when Harden should be doubling up Sef. Ibaka and Green should be flip-flopped, in terms of minutes allocations. It'd also make sense to let rookie center Cole Aldrich get some playing time, to see if he can provide a spark like Ibaka provided a year ago.
It'd make sense for them to use their assets to nab somebody before the deadline, but they probably won't. The Thunder can't seriously compete until they get some size to deter teams from living in the paint against them. And they're not going to win with Scott Brooks' missionary-position coaching, or Presti sitting on these twenty-somethings waiting to see what happens. Once Westbrook showed he was for real, all bets should have been off. They should have been aggressively finding complementary pieces, instead of thinking that Green, Sefolosha, and Krstic were going to magically gel into a super-unit, despite lacking the inherent ability to do so. Green is a free-agent at the end of the season. The Thunder could absolutely re-sign him, and they'd be stuck in the same place they are now. If Presti is really shrewd, he'd let Green walk, but what does that do? They'll have an extra 5 million bucks in their pocket to do what? The most tantalizing prospect would be the possibility of signing the soon-to-be 31 year old David West, who still wouldn't solve their rebounding/post-defense issues. I like West, and he's a 19-20 PER guy, but does that put the Thunder in the elite class? I don't think so. Greg Oden is dripping with potential but can't stay healthy, as you know all too well, so a team can't tie their championship wagon to Oden, who'd also be a restricted free agent.
Where at one point, I thought the Thunder were on their way to dominate the league, to become the next dynasty like the Spurs were, I now think they are tragically flawed. Until the braintrust shows some balls, I'm resigning my expectations to the 53 win team that can't get out of the semi-finals because they can't defend the paint. It's going to take Brooks to allow Harden to grow into the team's 3rd scorer and an extra playmaker, for a team struggling to move the ball, that's not a bad idea. And most importantly, he needs to cement Serge Ibaka as the full-time PF. It's going to take Presti to cash in on his assets, and spring for a quality big man. The Thunder are too talented at the top to keep being dragged along by their conservative powers-that-be.
Let's give Presti his due credit, for drafting Russell Westbrook, a controversial pick, and Serge Ibaka, a late-round project. We can't give him props for Kevin Durant; he lucked into the 2nd pick via the lottery, and any other team in the league would have taken Durant. He drafted in a spot where you're supposed to get a great player and he got one.
If you're going to praise Presti for seeing the value in the raw talents of Westbrook and Ibaka, you have to admit there were flaws, even if we pretend like they aren't any. The Jeff Green pick was a massive miss. In moderate defense of that, the next picks were Yi, Corey Brewer, and Brendan Wright--some awful basketball players. However, Jeff Green didn't make sense from the outset given that he was a "tweener" forward, and they had just drafted Durant. More damning, Joakim Noah was on the board and went ninth, after Wright. Can you imagine Noah as a Thunder, flying around on defense, rebounding, and generally doing all of the things that make him a terrific center? A title contender they would be! Green is the bane of the Thunder's existence and is a constant question mark from any angle (Brooks', Presti's, the team).
In an ongoing bout of poor analysis, Green gets mentioned in national telecasts as the 3rd guy, the guy who "doesn't do one thing great, but does everything well." Listen for it. You'll hear it. Somehow this team and Green especially has earned some undue respect, when really, Green should be getting called out for his play, or Brooks' insistence of playing him. In his four seasons, Green is averaging 14.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.9 turnovers. He's a career 44.2% shooter, 33.9% from 3, and 76.9% FT. Unimpressive considering he's averaged 34.6 MPG, including 37+ this year and last year. He's regressed in PER, down to 12.7, which John Hollinger considers a shade below being "in the rotation." I'm assuming being in the rotation doesn't mean playing almost 40 minutes a game.
Night after night, in a league overflowing with power forwards, the Thunder are getting waxed by opposing PFs, in large part due to Green unable to defend them. He's too small and too soft to provide any resistance. He's not a very good player, and the Thunder win in spite of him.
But Green is being miscast. He's clearly not a PF. Even if his body could have told us that, his game has demonstrated over the past 4 years that he's a small forward. He can't be faulted for playing the position his coach tells him too. Ultimately, it's up the coaches and the front-office to correct ongoing fallacies within the team, and Green's role is the biggest aperture. The most absurd thing is, Serge Ibaka is sitting right there, begging to sop up those porous minutes. Ibaka is 3rd in PER, is clearly growing, whereas Green as plateaued, and has the mindset to be a big man, even if he's only a little bigger than Green. Ibaka does a good job cooling off red-hot PFs who are slaying Green, while swatting shots at one of the best rates in the league. Ibaka also has a surprisingly good 16-18 foot jump-shot, which is more than Green can boast, so they can't act as if Green has an offensive advantage (Ibaka is shooting 45% from 16-23, Green is shooting 39%). Fans can't understand why Ibaka isn't getting more minutes, to the point they're frustrated.
The Thunder keep preaching how they need to get their 48-minute defense in order, like it was a year ago, but Scott Brooks is reluctant to make any adjustments. I get the feeling that Brooks imagines his team descending into apocalyptic chaos if he made a change, so he sticks with familiarity. I recently read a piece that suggested that the Thunder's defense was slightly overachieving last year (and it was only 9th in the league to begin with), and that regression had to be expected. They aren't a great rebounding team and they don't defend the rim very well. Opposing teams shoot 59.6% in the paint (not including dunks or tips), and 44.6% in jumpers. Compare that to the Celtics stifling defense who allow teams to shoot a nearly-identical 44.1% on jumpers, but allow 52.7% in the paint. Also, the Thunder are allowing a whopping 19.6 PER to opposing PFs, the Celtics just 14.9. They're trying to get back to a level they aren't capable of. Westbrook, Sefolosha, Durant, and Harden are nice wing complements to a defensive scheme, but defense is about protecting the paint. Nick Collison is their best defensive big, but he's too small to resist post-ups or to handedly grab defensive rebounds. Ibaka is long and athletic as can hell, but he still has to refine his defensive instincts to keep from fouling, and understanding help defense. Green can't guard anybody, except maybe small forwards. And Nenad Krstic is solid, but far from an anchor, though he isn't a sieve.
There seems to be too much laissez faire-ness going on in Oklahoma City. They keep with the tagline that they're a young team and patience is in order. But as Bill Simmons has pointed out in his podcast, they have two of the best ten players in the league and they can't guarantee they'll have this window forever. The Thunder management like to think Durant/Westbrook will be around for 15 years, so there's no need to do anything rash, but the NBA is fickle. Injuries can derail a career, and these two aren't immune to a Grant Hill/Penny Hardaway future, or even the ongoing Brandon Roy saga. The NBA title is up for grabs, especially with uncertainty in the powers of the West. The Lakers look a step slow, and the Spurs are vulnerable, despite their robust record. Why wouldn't the Thunder try to seize the West this year? Right now, even carrying a 50-win pace, the Thunder have an underwhelming +1.7 point differential. That suggests they aren't a serious contender, which is a disservice to Durant and Westbrook. Currently, James Harden and Ibaka are being underused, not maximizing the talent the Thunder have available. Thabo Sefolosha isn't defending with the fervor he did a year ago, so he's on the court, practically leaving the Thunder to play 4-on-5 on offense. Still, Sef gets a couple more minutes a game than Harden, when Harden should be doubling up Sef. Ibaka and Green should be flip-flopped, in terms of minutes allocations. It'd also make sense to let rookie center Cole Aldrich get some playing time, to see if he can provide a spark like Ibaka provided a year ago.
It'd make sense for them to use their assets to nab somebody before the deadline, but they probably won't. The Thunder can't seriously compete until they get some size to deter teams from living in the paint against them. And they're not going to win with Scott Brooks' missionary-position coaching, or Presti sitting on these twenty-somethings waiting to see what happens. Once Westbrook showed he was for real, all bets should have been off. They should have been aggressively finding complementary pieces, instead of thinking that Green, Sefolosha, and Krstic were going to magically gel into a super-unit, despite lacking the inherent ability to do so. Green is a free-agent at the end of the season. The Thunder could absolutely re-sign him, and they'd be stuck in the same place they are now. If Presti is really shrewd, he'd let Green walk, but what does that do? They'll have an extra 5 million bucks in their pocket to do what? The most tantalizing prospect would be the possibility of signing the soon-to-be 31 year old David West, who still wouldn't solve their rebounding/post-defense issues. I like West, and he's a 19-20 PER guy, but does that put the Thunder in the elite class? I don't think so. Greg Oden is dripping with potential but can't stay healthy, as you know all too well, so a team can't tie their championship wagon to Oden, who'd also be a restricted free agent.
Where at one point, I thought the Thunder were on their way to dominate the league, to become the next dynasty like the Spurs were, I now think they are tragically flawed. Until the braintrust shows some balls, I'm resigning my expectations to the 53 win team that can't get out of the semi-finals because they can't defend the paint. It's going to take Brooks to allow Harden to grow into the team's 3rd scorer and an extra playmaker, for a team struggling to move the ball, that's not a bad idea. And most importantly, he needs to cement Serge Ibaka as the full-time PF. It's going to take Presti to cash in on his assets, and spring for a quality big man. The Thunder are too talented at the top to keep being dragged along by their conservative powers-that-be.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Best Trade Ever
Carmelo and Steve Nash are garnering the bulk of the trade talk, but teams are having trouble matching value, making it hard to justify pulling the trigger. I've got a nice fake trade that'll bring harmony to both teams involved, however.
The Pacers are 29th in attendance, are supposedly bludgeoning money, and are in constant threat of relocation. The Pacers have been stuck in a mode where they aren't bad enough to get a top 3 pick, but aren't good enough to be relevant.
The Jazz are vastly underwhelming, and look pretty dead in the water, destined to be the 5th seed whipping boys. You know, like the past four years. Their frontcourt experiment as been pretty mediocre.
The trade is simple: Danny Granger for Al Jefferson. It works financially, straight-up.
The key to this whole deal is rookie Paul George. From what I've seen of George, he's really smooth and shows every flash of being a star. At the very least, he seems like a replication of Granger. George shoots 3s and attacks the rim, which is what you want out of a scorer. He's very good at the rim, but is struggling from the 3 point line at 28.4%. George's 3 point struggles are pretty common for rookies, however. His knock coming into the draft was that he wasn't good at creating for himself, but George is getting just 48.8% of his baskets assisted, a lower number than Kevin Durant or even Granger. He's 2nd in rookie PER, and has a good TS% of 55.9% already. He's a solid rebounder and already does a good job with TO%. Just like Granger did when he was coming up, George needs to increase his solid Usage Rate to star levels, which is sitting at 17.8%. His ability to attack the rim off the dribble suggest future success in increased UR. I'm a fan of Paul George!
The problem with this emergence is that Granger and George probably won't be able to play together as 35 MPG stars, because they don't complement each other at all. With Wade and LeBron, at least LeBron can create, not to mention they are elite players. Jordan and Pippen, as well, could complement each other with passing and defense. Grange and George aren't on that level, and it stands to reason that one has to go. Granger seems like the likely choice, given George is cheaper and younger, and Granger is at his apex. For other teams, I don't know how teams aren't drooling over the prospects of acquiring Granger, who has proven himself to be a 20-21 PER guy, and can score in bunches. Enter the Jazz.
The Jazz have a franchise guy in Deron Williams, but haven't had a perimeter scorer since Adrian Dantley. Al Jefferson isn't close to being the player he was in Minnesota a couple of years ago and creates defensive problems for the Jazz. The Deron/Jefferson/Millsap trio isn't winning anybody any championships. For the Jazz, Granger gives them a perimeter threat with Deron, as well someone who's cheaper than Andrei Kirilenko, when he finally expires at the end of the year. That money could allow them to restructure the team around a more complementary core of Deron/Granger/Millsap/Okur. I don't think Gordon Hayward is getting anyone excited.
The Pacers could get a semi-franchise PF, who would take care of the problem of relying on the Hansbrough/McRoberts combo to carry you into the playoffs. I love those guys off of the bench, but come on, they aren't starters. Wing/Post scoring complements each other, unlike Wing/Wing scoring, which seems to be the route the Pacers are heading down. As George emerges, Jefferson is an ideal partner. Jefferson could go to his natural PF position and play beside a true, decent defensive center in Roy Hibbert. The Pacers tried making Hibbert a go-to guy, but he just doesn't have it in him. Hibbert's ceiling is a 3rd guy who settles into the 14 points 11 rebound territory. Darren Collison gives them a solid PG who can run the show as long as the Pacers keep his company. He's a good defensive guard with a 16.1 PER. Hibbert has a 16.4 PER despite being miscast as a go-to player. The Pacers would have tons of money going into the summer, and add some more quality players, to go along with their slew of solid-but-unimpressive guys like Hansbrough/Dunleavy/McRoberts/Foster/Dahntay.
You could ask "does this move make either team a contender?" For the Jazz, I don't know but I'd rather roll the dice with Granger than Jefferson, because Millsap seems to be the logical choice to stay intact. It'd be a smart way of rectifying the mistake of thinking Jefferson was going to mesh with Millsap, and help them find a real defensive big man, because the Jazz are never going to defend their way through the playoffs with this group.
For the Pacers, I'd argue that as long as the Heat and Bulls are doing their thing, can you really envision a scenario where there Pacers are a serious title contender? And with George, you aren't sure where his ceiling is, anyway, but you imagine it's pretty high. There's also a longshot chance that Lance Stephenson is a good SG for them. He's talented but doesn't have his head on straight. The Pacers' franchise is at a standstill and if George/Jefferson/Hibbert lock them into 53 wins and 3rd-4th seed and maybe a Conference Finals, isn't that better than sub .500, bleeding money? Surely the basketball junkies of Indianapolis would come out to see a competitive team like that one. It might not bring a title, like the Reggie Miller Pacers, but at least they were a really tough team. To me, that seems worth it. It'd take a stroke of brilliant luck to give the Pacers a team that could take down the Heat, Bulls, Celtics, and Magic, but instead of sitting around waiting, why not do something about it now?
I love this trade, and I love the prospects of Paul George. I'd love to see him develop into someone you have to go watch play, and embrace being a star. Granger is missionary-style boring. He's not franchise-face material. I say roll with George and try to save a dying franchise.
The Pacers are 29th in attendance, are supposedly bludgeoning money, and are in constant threat of relocation. The Pacers have been stuck in a mode where they aren't bad enough to get a top 3 pick, but aren't good enough to be relevant.
The Jazz are vastly underwhelming, and look pretty dead in the water, destined to be the 5th seed whipping boys. You know, like the past four years. Their frontcourt experiment as been pretty mediocre.
The trade is simple: Danny Granger for Al Jefferson. It works financially, straight-up.
The key to this whole deal is rookie Paul George. From what I've seen of George, he's really smooth and shows every flash of being a star. At the very least, he seems like a replication of Granger. George shoots 3s and attacks the rim, which is what you want out of a scorer. He's very good at the rim, but is struggling from the 3 point line at 28.4%. George's 3 point struggles are pretty common for rookies, however. His knock coming into the draft was that he wasn't good at creating for himself, but George is getting just 48.8% of his baskets assisted, a lower number than Kevin Durant or even Granger. He's 2nd in rookie PER, and has a good TS% of 55.9% already. He's a solid rebounder and already does a good job with TO%. Just like Granger did when he was coming up, George needs to increase his solid Usage Rate to star levels, which is sitting at 17.8%. His ability to attack the rim off the dribble suggest future success in increased UR. I'm a fan of Paul George!
The problem with this emergence is that Granger and George probably won't be able to play together as 35 MPG stars, because they don't complement each other at all. With Wade and LeBron, at least LeBron can create, not to mention they are elite players. Jordan and Pippen, as well, could complement each other with passing and defense. Grange and George aren't on that level, and it stands to reason that one has to go. Granger seems like the likely choice, given George is cheaper and younger, and Granger is at his apex. For other teams, I don't know how teams aren't drooling over the prospects of acquiring Granger, who has proven himself to be a 20-21 PER guy, and can score in bunches. Enter the Jazz.
The Jazz have a franchise guy in Deron Williams, but haven't had a perimeter scorer since Adrian Dantley. Al Jefferson isn't close to being the player he was in Minnesota a couple of years ago and creates defensive problems for the Jazz. The Deron/Jefferson/Millsap trio isn't winning anybody any championships. For the Jazz, Granger gives them a perimeter threat with Deron, as well someone who's cheaper than Andrei Kirilenko, when he finally expires at the end of the year. That money could allow them to restructure the team around a more complementary core of Deron/Granger/Millsap/Okur. I don't think Gordon Hayward is getting anyone excited.
The Pacers could get a semi-franchise PF, who would take care of the problem of relying on the Hansbrough/McRoberts combo to carry you into the playoffs. I love those guys off of the bench, but come on, they aren't starters. Wing/Post scoring complements each other, unlike Wing/Wing scoring, which seems to be the route the Pacers are heading down. As George emerges, Jefferson is an ideal partner. Jefferson could go to his natural PF position and play beside a true, decent defensive center in Roy Hibbert. The Pacers tried making Hibbert a go-to guy, but he just doesn't have it in him. Hibbert's ceiling is a 3rd guy who settles into the 14 points 11 rebound territory. Darren Collison gives them a solid PG who can run the show as long as the Pacers keep his company. He's a good defensive guard with a 16.1 PER. Hibbert has a 16.4 PER despite being miscast as a go-to player. The Pacers would have tons of money going into the summer, and add some more quality players, to go along with their slew of solid-but-unimpressive guys like Hansbrough/Dunleavy/McRoberts/Foster/Dahntay.
You could ask "does this move make either team a contender?" For the Jazz, I don't know but I'd rather roll the dice with Granger than Jefferson, because Millsap seems to be the logical choice to stay intact. It'd be a smart way of rectifying the mistake of thinking Jefferson was going to mesh with Millsap, and help them find a real defensive big man, because the Jazz are never going to defend their way through the playoffs with this group.
For the Pacers, I'd argue that as long as the Heat and Bulls are doing their thing, can you really envision a scenario where there Pacers are a serious title contender? And with George, you aren't sure where his ceiling is, anyway, but you imagine it's pretty high. There's also a longshot chance that Lance Stephenson is a good SG for them. He's talented but doesn't have his head on straight. The Pacers' franchise is at a standstill and if George/Jefferson/Hibbert lock them into 53 wins and 3rd-4th seed and maybe a Conference Finals, isn't that better than sub .500, bleeding money? Surely the basketball junkies of Indianapolis would come out to see a competitive team like that one. It might not bring a title, like the Reggie Miller Pacers, but at least they were a really tough team. To me, that seems worth it. It'd take a stroke of brilliant luck to give the Pacers a team that could take down the Heat, Bulls, Celtics, and Magic, but instead of sitting around waiting, why not do something about it now?
I love this trade, and I love the prospects of Paul George. I'd love to see him develop into someone you have to go watch play, and embrace being a star. Granger is missionary-style boring. He's not franchise-face material. I say roll with George and try to save a dying franchise.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Catching Up, Diving In
Since we're approximately mid-season, I thought it'd be good to get a scope on how I see the league. Top 5 position power rankings. Team power rankings. Mid-season awards. The typical stuff, with PER/Hoopdata to assist me along the way.
Point Guard Power Rankings
1. Chris Paul: 25.46 PER. The Win Shares incarnation of MEC would tell you that you were an idiot for saying anybody but Paul was the best PG in the league. The current incarnation would tell you the same thing. Chris Paul has no weaknesses. There seemed to be a notion at least a couple of years ago that he couldn't really shoot. Well, Paul has an extraordinary 61.3% TS% and is a 51% eFG jump shooter, which is excellent. Paul bests all of his top competitors in Turnover Rate. He leads the league in steals, plays solid defense, rebounds well at his position and is among the best passers in the league. The only thing holding him back is his 22.4% Usage Rate which is too low for someone as good as he is. The conventional wisdom is Paul is holding back because of the giant knee-brace he has to wear to protect his ailing knee. Even with a timid knee, Paul is slaying the league's PGs.
2. Russell Westbrook: 24.07 PER. Westbrook is the controversial number 2 pick here. The first couple of months had a red-hot Deron WIlliams and would have been in this spot had it not been for this downer February. Westbrook is great in terms of Usage Rate (2nd), and Rebound Rate (1st). His TO Rate and TS% are middling, but considering his impact on defense (solid, and gets steals), Westbrook fits the bill as today's 2nd best PG. One thing troubling about Westbrook is his 38.2% eFG on jumpers is showing very little improvement. But he keeps increasing his FT%, so maybe there's a decent stroke lying somewhere inside of him. He's really fun to watch, and once he learns to consistently play in control, he can maximize his aggressiveness. As his UR, FTA (1st among PGs), and highlight reel can attest, no PG is more aggressive than Westbrook, and you can tell why the Thunder are somewhat overachieving this year.
3. Derrick Rose: 22.99 PER. Time for some Hartsell subjectivity. Steve Nash is 3rd in PER, but Rose is pretty close to him and Rose is the better defender of the two. He's also been forced into taking over a ton of offense with Boozer missing so much time. MEC has been really hard on D-Rose in the past, and I say much of it was deserved, but he's earned his due this season. Rose is a nice 45.5% jump shooter, thanks to his newfound 3 point shot, up from 44.6% a season ago (where he shot better on mid and long 2s). He's also an explosive finisher (58% at the rim), and is surprisingly good at taking care of the ball (10.1 TO Rate), so he plays more in control than his OKC doppelganger. Rose is 3rd in PG FTA but you can't help but think he can be non-confrontational going to the basket. Westbrook gets the PER nod over Rose for his superior Rebound, Assist, and Steals Rates, despite Rose besting him TO Rate (TS% and UR are too close to call between the two). Rose is also a decent, yet wildly inconsistent defender, not as solid as Westbrook. Given Rose's ability to hit jump shots, and improving his 3 ball, he may be the better long-term option, but as of today, he sits behind Russ.
4. Steve Nash: 23.36 PER. Nash is tied for 1st in PG TS%, 4th in AR, with a good UR of 24.2%. Nash can't defend but he has the luxury of playing a position where it doesn't make or break a team. His offense is terrific as always, and let's hope he gets traded where he can make a difference for a team who matters. He's working on his 6th straight 50-40-90 season.
5. Deron Williams: 22.49 PER. As I said earlier, he could have been 2nd if he would have kept up his November/December production. He's actually having a career best PER, but unfortunately in a raw rankings list, Rose and Westbrook exploded to give us the best PG play, maybe ever. Deron is the best on-ball defender on this list, but doesn't get very many steals, which makes a big impact at the position. He's 2nd in PG FTA, 3rd in UR, and 7th in TS%, but is an embarrassingly low rebounder for a player of his size and strength. He's a great 49% jump shooter. When I watch Deron, I sometimes feel like something is always missing, just a little bit. He did some things I questioned in the playoffs last year, and the fact that it looks like he has all the tools but is 5th in PER maybe is some poetic justice. I don't always like Deron's decision making, and the fact he doesn't contribute as a rebounder like Jason Kidd does is pretty disappointing. Still, 22.5 PER from a PG is fantastic, so I won't make it seem like Deron is a slacker. He just comes without the upside of the Paul/Rose/Westbrook.
Noteworthy Omission
Rajon Rondo: 18.5 PER. Rondo is amazingly fun to watch. He runs the Celtics like it seems like a true point guard should. Still, Rondo clocks in 10th in PG PER, which seems egregious to Rondo apologists. To wit, Rondo is a 56% FT shooter. I think we pretend like that's not a big deal, but your best ball handler at the end of games can't touch the ball. Rondo has dropped his UR because he's basically refusing to shoot unless it's totally necessary. He's the best defensive PG so that would bump him up against the PER roadblocks of Andre Miller and Lou Williams (a defensive travesty). For the praise he garners for his gaudy assist numbers, note he also leads these competitor PGs in TO Rate by a healthy margin. Rondo leads the league in TO per game despite playing on the slow paced Celtics. So that league-leading AR comes at a price. He has a great RR, but he's competing against some of the most gifted offensive PGs you could ask for. 10 PPG won't cut it against these top guys. It's interesting to note, however, for all of Rondo's maligned shooting woes, he's actually a 41% jump shooter, even if he is being left open.
Shooting Guard Power Rankings
1. Dwyane Wade: 25.29 PER. This is Dwyane's 3rd straight year heading the SG list. Wade's credentials are in place, as usual, thanks to a huge UR, high TS%, high RR, Steals Rate, although his AR is usually higher. Wade's defensive identity is signified by playing on a dominate defensive team despite having a traditional defensive big man. He's been the perfect sidekick to LeBron this season, and makes Mo Williams look like a high school player by comparison.
2. Kobe Bryant: 24.88 PER. It's a bounce-back year for Kobe, who had a big down-year last season. His PER more or less back to its usual point of production. Kobe ratcheted up his UR and AR, while getting his TS% back to his normal efficiency. Kobe is showing off his passing chops a lot better this season, managing to do a LeBron Light routine, which means keeping his Usage sky-high (leads the league), but also facilitating the ball better. The Lakers offense is about 3.5 points better because of it, as well. A capable defender like always, Kobe hasn't trailed off on a per-minute basis, despite the reduced MPG.
3. Manu Ginobili: 22.38 PER. If you were making a shooting guard list for this decade, it would probably have to be in this order. There have been more decorated SGs than Manu (two of them are ahead of him), but he's among the most productive. Ginobili is actually behind Kevin Martin in PER, but Manu is the better defender of the two, negating the marginal difference in the two's PERs. 58.9% TS%, 21.9% AR, 24.8% UR are Manu's leading credentials. He's a great passing 2-guard, who also scores in every way. Wade is a solid 40.1% jump shooter, Kobe is 44.6%, and Manu is a 51.2% jump shooter. So, for all of Kobe's merits of shooting Js, Manu bests him, thanks for his good 3 point shooting.
4. Kevin Martin: 22.69 PER: Martin is easily having his best year as a pro. His 61.3% TS% is outstanding and is 3rd among SGs. He's also 3rd in UR. He's also solid in regards to turnovers for a high usage player. Martin has no discernible skill beyond efficient scoring, however. His AR is pretty low, as he lacks the passing chops of the guys ahead of him, along with the rebounding chops. He's also pretty weak defensively. But Martin is too good of scorer to be denied placing on this list. A legitimate candidate for being the guy you need to get you 30 points on a given night. Severely underrated, and needs to be on a good team at some point in his career.
5. Eric Gordon: 21.14 PER. Just like with the PGs, there gets to be a noticeable drop-off after the 5th player. Gordon makes a nice cap to this list, who was enjoying a breakout season before a wrist injury put him out. Last year, Gordon had a solid, but far from spectacular PER of 14.1. Gordon's 7 point leap makes him a legitimate Most Improved Candidate. Scoring efficiently as always (58.7 TS), Gordon raised his Usage and Assist Rates, while somehow dropping his TO Rate. That'll go a long way towards leaping up PER. Gordon is also a rock solid defender, using quickness and strength to overcome his lack of height.
Noteworthy Omissions
Ray Allen/Monta Ellis/Andre Iguodala/Joe Johnson: Ray's UR is a little too low (10th PER), Monta's efficiency too low (6th PER), as is Johnson's (7th), and Andre's (8th). Andre and Joe's passing, AR, keeps them in the top ten, while Monta's UR and passing keeps him in the top ten. Ray's laser-like efficiency keeps him in the top ten.
Small Forward Power Rankings
1. LeBron James: 27.08 PER. LeBron leads the league in PER for the 4th straight year. He's actually receiving less assisted baskets in Miami than he did in Cleveland, which is strange. His numbers are a little down across the board, but here he is, still leading the league in PER. He has a 58.3% TS%, and is shooting a surprising 44.8% on jump shots, suggesting that maybe he's a better shooter than we've given him credit for. LeBron still has the excellent AR, decent TO Rate, great SF Rebound Rate, and his a All-Defense lock. Even more so than Wade, LeBron anchors the 5th best NBA defense, vacillating between positions, all without a centerpiece big man. He's still the best player in the league, and you only have to imagine what his numbers would look like had his opening month been smoother.
2. Kevin Durant: 24. 26 PER. Durant has regressed in his supposed-to-be coming out party. After 26.2 PER last season, Durant has dropped down a couple of points, when he was supposed to increase. Small dips in TS% (from 60.7 to 59.7) a downward spike in Off Rebound Rate, and a thin layer of UR removed culminate in Durant's lesser season. Despite this, he's still a top 10 player and the firm number 2 SF. The biggest problem is Durant increased his number of jump shots. He's shooting a ridiculous 77.8% at the rim this season, yet only attempts 3.9 shots a game there, down from 5.3 a year ago. Durant should be attacking the rim more, which has seen his FTAs dip from last year, instead of settling for jumpers. The Thunder should be a bit better than they are, and Durant needs to assert that he's the best player on this team. More free throws, fewer jumpers, increased rebounding, etc. Another scoring title is nice, but overall production for Durant needs to take off, to fully put himself in LeBron, Wade, Kobe, and Dwight Howard's class.
3. Carmelo Anthony: 21.14 PER. With reservations I put Melo 3rd. Paul Pierce is just a little too far Melo in PER to make up for their defensive disparities. Melo has come on in February, or else he'd easily be 4th. His scoring efficiency is suspect as usual, but his UR is great, his RR is actually really good (the best of his career), and he's pretty good with regards to TO Rate. Carmelo rates out with a good but not elite PER because of his diminutive AR, lack of defensive numbers, and an average TS%. He can't match the efficiency of LeBron, Wade, Durant, or Kobe. His defensive effort doesn't show up in PER, so given that this guy is the league's hottest commodity, the record should show PER doesn't indicate they'd be getting a championship-level player, with bad defensive habits, to boot. Carmelo's ceiling is 22 PER, which is a couple points lower than you'd want out of a bona fide franchise guy.
4. Paul Pierce: 20.02 PER: Right on Melo's heels for 3rd place, given his hyper-efficiency and balls-out defensive effort. Pierce has a ridiculous 62.2% TS%, solid 16% AR, 9% RR, and 9.3% TO Rate, and good UR of 21.4%. He can't match the volume of the guys ahead of him anymore, and it's no coincidence that his rise in efficiency comes with near career-low Usage. Still, Pierce has done great work this season in a cohesive-team way, which is more than can be said about Anthony.
5. Danny Granger: 17.47 PER. Huge drop-off here, and it was between him and Rudy Gay. The PERs are extremely close with Gay having the slight edge. Gay also creates more off the dribble than Granger, with severe differences in their baskets assisted. That implies Granger needs a little more help getting buckets than Gay does, which doesn't affect anything at the PER/team level but it shows greater individual skill. Gay's team has a slight winning record, while the Pacers are below .500. Normally, I'd just give it to Gay, but I'm still taking Granger because this is a down year for him. He's performed Carmelo-esque for the past few years and I'd trust him over Gay, who's basically maxed out who he is as a player. If Gay were having a breakout season of sorts, maybe I'd value that over Granger's down year, but this is a routine game by the vastly overpaid Gay.
Noteworthy Omissions: Maybe Gerald Wallace? He's just not been very good anywhere this season. Luol Deng is basically having the same year he usually has, solid but nothing great. That's about it. Thinnest position, by far. Now on to the deepest position.
Power Forward Power Rankings:
1. Pau Gasol: 23.67 PER. This is the biggest upset on the board. Gasol is 3rd PER, but first on my list, which thus far had been in agreement with PER on the top spots. Gasol, of the five worthy candidates, is the only capable defender. The rest of them are below average. Pau may not be a banger, but he is a 7 footer who protects the paint without fouling. He's not dominate, like Dwight Howard or Tyson Chandler, but I find him to be very effective/a good defender. Quickness and length can be as imposing as brute strength. By the way, has any paragraph about Gasol started out with his defense? Offensively, he still has good PER chops, with an excellent TS% and TO%, good RR, and great PF Assist Rate. The Lakers criminally underuse him and cap his UR, which hurts his PER. He can post-up, face-up, spot-up, and is great at put-backs. He also gets to the line and shoots 78-80% from there. He really is amazingly skilled. If I'm drafting a PF for one season, I have to take Pau because he's the most complete PF today.
2. Kevin Love: 24.51 PER. Good God, it's Kevin Love! I wrestled with having Love first, because well, he's first in PER. Let's review his credentials because his credentials are probably the most fun in the league this year. He has a terrific 23.4% Rebound Rate. He's shooting 59.6% TS, including 44% from 3. If the Lakers actually used Pau correctly, I'd probably give Love the nod, because the Timberwolves certainly underuse Love. He only has a 21.7% UR, despite the fact he should probably be getting the ball every time down the court. He's not totally sharp from everywhere yet, but he's a pretty good post-up player, and he can really nail the 3. He's solid in regards to TO%, and AR. What kept Love from the top spot is his below average defense. If he can get to be a solid defender, then we're talking about a legitimate franchise player. Nonetheless, sitting at number 2 amongst the deepest position in the league is extremely impressive.
3. Dirk Nowitzki: 23.41 PER. This is really hard. Amare has the PER advantage, but some of that has to do with blocked shots that Amare collects, but as we all know, he can't defend at all. Dirk is okay, I guess, but he's gotta be better than Amare. Dirk is shooting an outrageous 61.7% TS. He has a good 25.4% UR, and an exceptional 8.9 TO%. He's not a good rebounder but we've learned to cope with that shortcoming. Dirk's game seems more consistent, with Amare being unstoppable in stretches and cold in others. I'd take the guy I could count on.
4. Amare Stoudemire: 24.19 PER. Amare has kicked up his UR and AR to new highs, helping to compensate for the fact his TS% is quite a bit lower than his career average of 60.2%. This is just his 3rd best year in terms of PER, considering he's the main man now. His defense is still a problem and I have no idea how the Knicks plan on building a contender around Amare and a possible Carmelo's defensive liabilities. He turns the ball over a bit, and he doesn't rebound. But he can score efficiently in bunches. It's hard not to get enamored with his offensive game, where he can shoot from anywhere inside the arc, and faces-up nicely for nifty finishes and/or drawing contact. And no matter his rank on this list, his 24+ PER is terrific, there's just a lot of great PF play.
5. Blake Griffin: 23.51 PER. Proving to be more than just a highlight reel, Blake is already a franchise PF, midway into his rookie year. He excels with his high UR and excellent RR. Blake absolutely crashes the boards. He has a good AR for a PF and his TO% is solid. The TS% is decent, and is dependent on his ability to improve his free throw shooting. He's trying to stretch his range with 4.7 jumpers a game, at a wince inducing 35.1% eFG. At some point, you have to believe Blake will improve that number a bit (maybe not Amare's level, but improvement, nonetheless), and his FT shooting. His inside game is pretty sharp, using an array of moves to get to the basket. His passing is deceptively good, as well. There's no ceiling to Blake, who could be flirting with 30 PERs soon.
Noteworthy Omissions: Too many to list. There are 8 more players with at least 20 PERs. Garnett would probably get the first nod because his defense is better than anybody's at the position. But the position has a bunch of great players at it, so we'll just celebrate that.
Center Power Rankings
1. Dwight Howard: 25.49 PER. No surprise here. Dwight has a career high in UR, and his typically high Rebound Rate, Block Rate, and 60% TS%. His defense is reportedly a little less dominant, but the Magic's defensive rating is better than last year's (barely), despite playing with a slew of non-defenders. I'm going to assume that just because his blocks are little down, the defense is a taught as ever.
2. Al Horford: 22.58 PER. An upset at number two! A career year for Horford, who has bumped his UR but is still undervalued and underused by the Hawks. There's the great 60.1% TS%, the terrific center AR of 19.3, and the TO% of 7.8. He's a solid defensive center on the 13th best defense. He's a 53.5% jump shooter, and is just as effective on the inside, 72,7% at the rim and 46.7% inside ten feet. It's weird people lament the lack of great big men today and then totally underuse one of the best ones in the game. Horford is for real.
3. Tim Duncan: 21.58 PER. Duncan is 4th in PER but is still strong on defense where Nene is just mediocre, and their PERs are splitting hairs apart. Good rebounding and turnover numbers, despite scoring inefficiency and a lowered UR. It's a down year for Duncan but still a productive one, so the tales of his decline are understated, considering his minutes have been lowered.
4. Nene: 21.76 PER. I wanted Nene to be higher because he's an underrated guy, but even with his mind-blowing 69.6% TS, PER still sees the holes. His Rebound Rate is okay, at best, his TO% is just okay, and his UR is pretty pedestrian at 17%. Nene is an average defender, but ultimately, his value is in the fact he leads the league in FG% every year. He has great hands, makes hard cuts to the basket and finishes the hell out of the ball. He's not a guy you post-up, but you gotta give it to him when he's rolling or is set up deep.
5. Andrew Bynum: 20.71 PER. Injuries aside, Bynum is a really good player. He's so big, he changes everything at the rim, even if he's not Howard/Chandler-esque. His numbers are solid all across the board, except for a really good TS%, and when you add that up into a 7'1" 280lb body, you get a really good center. AR, UR, RR, TO% is all good, not great, but it adds up. He doesn't have any holes, even if he doesn't dominate anywhere.
Noteworthy Omissions
Joakim Noah/Tyson Chandler/Andrew Bogut/Al Jefferson: Noah turns the ball over a bit, but he's a really good rebounder and has a good TO% and AR and TS%. Great defender. Chandler: Awesome TS%, transcendent defender, great rebounder. Too low of a UR and a high TO%, though. Bogut: Bad TS%, but is pretty good everywhere else, plus he's a really, really good defender. Unsightly TS%, though. Jefferson: Awesome TO% and just okay everywhere else. Not in top form.
Power Rankings: Top Ten Teams
1. Spurs- 44-8, +7.2 point differential. They've been really healthy and their PD, while great, isn't as blazing as their record. Still, they have 6 games on the next closest team, have three 20+ PER players, and are great on their home court.
2. Heat- 38-14 +7.9. When the Big Three play, they're a really great team now. Best PD in the league, but they could use another signature win than just the Christmas win over the Lakers.
3. Boston- 38-14 +6.7. They just lost to the Lakers, but they have a game and a half on the Lakers, plus are still missing Shaq, Delonte West, and Marques Daniels. The defense is more imposing than the Lakers offense.
4. Lakers- 37-16 +6.7. They got their first signature win, but the Lakers still need more consistent defense. Four players over 20 PER, though, is really impressive.
5. Bulls- 35-16 +5.7. It's hard not to think that the Bulls are going to start rolling over people when they get Noah back. The league's best defense is going to keep improving, and Noah might even add a spark to their MOR offense.
6. Mavericks- 37-16 +3.0. I'm takin Dallas here because that time without Nowitzki was brutal. Nowitzki and Chandler are carrying the Mavs, but this is in hopes that Roddy Beaubois can inject life into their offense.
7. Magic- 34-20 +5.5. PD suggests Orlando should be better than they are. Jameer Nelson continues to ride the career roller coaster, and currently he's not pulling his weight and Gilbert Arenas has been awful. On the other hand, the Bass/Anderson combo has been killer. Richardson and Turkoglu have been disappointments but solid rotation guys. They need more scoring and nobody is stepping up.
8. Hornets 32-22 +2.4. Paul is the 2nd best player in the league and David West is having his best year. But after Emeka Okafor, who's hurt at the moment, New Orleans doesn't have a quality guy anywhere, not until Marcus Thornton starts shooting the ball well again. It's a 2 1/2 man team, which is good enough for 8th in the league, but not a real contender. They need some help.
9. Thunder 33-18 +1.9. The Hornets are tough when everybody is healthy. The Thunder are healthy and have every game come down to the wire and can't perform against the top teams. Durant and Westbrook are basically playing Serge Ibaka and that's it. James Harden is solid but doesn't get enough minutes, and the rest of the guys are middling. Missing an impacting big man besides Ibaka.
10. Atlanta 33-19 +1.4. A solid quad of Horford, Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith, but they lack much depth. Horford should be the number 1 guy, and the rest of those guys are 3rd bananas. It's a mismatched team that has enough top -end talent to be where they are.
Midseason Awards:
MVP: LeBron James. Best PER, 2nd best record. Who else?
Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard. 3rd best defense, yet plays with zero good defenders. All credit to the big man.
6th man: Lou Williams. 18.8 PER, best among 6th men. Lamar Odom has started more games than sat, so he doesn't count.
Most Improved Player: Eric Gordon. Everyone is giving this to Kevin Love but Love only jumped about 4.5 points in PER, while Gordon jumped 7.
Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich. Racking up wins, resting his players, developing a strong bench. Good enough for me.
All-NBA First Team
G: Chris Paul
G: Dwyane Wade
F: LeBron James
F: Pau Gasol
C: Dwight Howard
All-NBA Second Team
G: Russell Westbrook
G: Kobe Bryant
F: Kevin Durant
F: Kevin Love
C: Al Horford
All-NBA Third Team
G: Derrick Rose
G: Manu Ginobili
F: Dirk Nowitzki
F: Amare Stoudemire
C: Tim Duncan
Point Guard Power Rankings
1. Chris Paul: 25.46 PER. The Win Shares incarnation of MEC would tell you that you were an idiot for saying anybody but Paul was the best PG in the league. The current incarnation would tell you the same thing. Chris Paul has no weaknesses. There seemed to be a notion at least a couple of years ago that he couldn't really shoot. Well, Paul has an extraordinary 61.3% TS% and is a 51% eFG jump shooter, which is excellent. Paul bests all of his top competitors in Turnover Rate. He leads the league in steals, plays solid defense, rebounds well at his position and is among the best passers in the league. The only thing holding him back is his 22.4% Usage Rate which is too low for someone as good as he is. The conventional wisdom is Paul is holding back because of the giant knee-brace he has to wear to protect his ailing knee. Even with a timid knee, Paul is slaying the league's PGs.
2. Russell Westbrook: 24.07 PER. Westbrook is the controversial number 2 pick here. The first couple of months had a red-hot Deron WIlliams and would have been in this spot had it not been for this downer February. Westbrook is great in terms of Usage Rate (2nd), and Rebound Rate (1st). His TO Rate and TS% are middling, but considering his impact on defense (solid, and gets steals), Westbrook fits the bill as today's 2nd best PG. One thing troubling about Westbrook is his 38.2% eFG on jumpers is showing very little improvement. But he keeps increasing his FT%, so maybe there's a decent stroke lying somewhere inside of him. He's really fun to watch, and once he learns to consistently play in control, he can maximize his aggressiveness. As his UR, FTA (1st among PGs), and highlight reel can attest, no PG is more aggressive than Westbrook, and you can tell why the Thunder are somewhat overachieving this year.
3. Derrick Rose: 22.99 PER. Time for some Hartsell subjectivity. Steve Nash is 3rd in PER, but Rose is pretty close to him and Rose is the better defender of the two. He's also been forced into taking over a ton of offense with Boozer missing so much time. MEC has been really hard on D-Rose in the past, and I say much of it was deserved, but he's earned his due this season. Rose is a nice 45.5% jump shooter, thanks to his newfound 3 point shot, up from 44.6% a season ago (where he shot better on mid and long 2s). He's also an explosive finisher (58% at the rim), and is surprisingly good at taking care of the ball (10.1 TO Rate), so he plays more in control than his OKC doppelganger. Rose is 3rd in PG FTA but you can't help but think he can be non-confrontational going to the basket. Westbrook gets the PER nod over Rose for his superior Rebound, Assist, and Steals Rates, despite Rose besting him TO Rate (TS% and UR are too close to call between the two). Rose is also a decent, yet wildly inconsistent defender, not as solid as Westbrook. Given Rose's ability to hit jump shots, and improving his 3 ball, he may be the better long-term option, but as of today, he sits behind Russ.
4. Steve Nash: 23.36 PER. Nash is tied for 1st in PG TS%, 4th in AR, with a good UR of 24.2%. Nash can't defend but he has the luxury of playing a position where it doesn't make or break a team. His offense is terrific as always, and let's hope he gets traded where he can make a difference for a team who matters. He's working on his 6th straight 50-40-90 season.
5. Deron Williams: 22.49 PER. As I said earlier, he could have been 2nd if he would have kept up his November/December production. He's actually having a career best PER, but unfortunately in a raw rankings list, Rose and Westbrook exploded to give us the best PG play, maybe ever. Deron is the best on-ball defender on this list, but doesn't get very many steals, which makes a big impact at the position. He's 2nd in PG FTA, 3rd in UR, and 7th in TS%, but is an embarrassingly low rebounder for a player of his size and strength. He's a great 49% jump shooter. When I watch Deron, I sometimes feel like something is always missing, just a little bit. He did some things I questioned in the playoffs last year, and the fact that it looks like he has all the tools but is 5th in PER maybe is some poetic justice. I don't always like Deron's decision making, and the fact he doesn't contribute as a rebounder like Jason Kidd does is pretty disappointing. Still, 22.5 PER from a PG is fantastic, so I won't make it seem like Deron is a slacker. He just comes without the upside of the Paul/Rose/Westbrook.
Noteworthy Omission
Rajon Rondo: 18.5 PER. Rondo is amazingly fun to watch. He runs the Celtics like it seems like a true point guard should. Still, Rondo clocks in 10th in PG PER, which seems egregious to Rondo apologists. To wit, Rondo is a 56% FT shooter. I think we pretend like that's not a big deal, but your best ball handler at the end of games can't touch the ball. Rondo has dropped his UR because he's basically refusing to shoot unless it's totally necessary. He's the best defensive PG so that would bump him up against the PER roadblocks of Andre Miller and Lou Williams (a defensive travesty). For the praise he garners for his gaudy assist numbers, note he also leads these competitor PGs in TO Rate by a healthy margin. Rondo leads the league in TO per game despite playing on the slow paced Celtics. So that league-leading AR comes at a price. He has a great RR, but he's competing against some of the most gifted offensive PGs you could ask for. 10 PPG won't cut it against these top guys. It's interesting to note, however, for all of Rondo's maligned shooting woes, he's actually a 41% jump shooter, even if he is being left open.
Shooting Guard Power Rankings
1. Dwyane Wade: 25.29 PER. This is Dwyane's 3rd straight year heading the SG list. Wade's credentials are in place, as usual, thanks to a huge UR, high TS%, high RR, Steals Rate, although his AR is usually higher. Wade's defensive identity is signified by playing on a dominate defensive team despite having a traditional defensive big man. He's been the perfect sidekick to LeBron this season, and makes Mo Williams look like a high school player by comparison.
2. Kobe Bryant: 24.88 PER. It's a bounce-back year for Kobe, who had a big down-year last season. His PER more or less back to its usual point of production. Kobe ratcheted up his UR and AR, while getting his TS% back to his normal efficiency. Kobe is showing off his passing chops a lot better this season, managing to do a LeBron Light routine, which means keeping his Usage sky-high (leads the league), but also facilitating the ball better. The Lakers offense is about 3.5 points better because of it, as well. A capable defender like always, Kobe hasn't trailed off on a per-minute basis, despite the reduced MPG.
3. Manu Ginobili: 22.38 PER. If you were making a shooting guard list for this decade, it would probably have to be in this order. There have been more decorated SGs than Manu (two of them are ahead of him), but he's among the most productive. Ginobili is actually behind Kevin Martin in PER, but Manu is the better defender of the two, negating the marginal difference in the two's PERs. 58.9% TS%, 21.9% AR, 24.8% UR are Manu's leading credentials. He's a great passing 2-guard, who also scores in every way. Wade is a solid 40.1% jump shooter, Kobe is 44.6%, and Manu is a 51.2% jump shooter. So, for all of Kobe's merits of shooting Js, Manu bests him, thanks for his good 3 point shooting.
4. Kevin Martin: 22.69 PER: Martin is easily having his best year as a pro. His 61.3% TS% is outstanding and is 3rd among SGs. He's also 3rd in UR. He's also solid in regards to turnovers for a high usage player. Martin has no discernible skill beyond efficient scoring, however. His AR is pretty low, as he lacks the passing chops of the guys ahead of him, along with the rebounding chops. He's also pretty weak defensively. But Martin is too good of scorer to be denied placing on this list. A legitimate candidate for being the guy you need to get you 30 points on a given night. Severely underrated, and needs to be on a good team at some point in his career.
5. Eric Gordon: 21.14 PER. Just like with the PGs, there gets to be a noticeable drop-off after the 5th player. Gordon makes a nice cap to this list, who was enjoying a breakout season before a wrist injury put him out. Last year, Gordon had a solid, but far from spectacular PER of 14.1. Gordon's 7 point leap makes him a legitimate Most Improved Candidate. Scoring efficiently as always (58.7 TS), Gordon raised his Usage and Assist Rates, while somehow dropping his TO Rate. That'll go a long way towards leaping up PER. Gordon is also a rock solid defender, using quickness and strength to overcome his lack of height.
Noteworthy Omissions
Ray Allen/Monta Ellis/Andre Iguodala/Joe Johnson: Ray's UR is a little too low (10th PER), Monta's efficiency too low (6th PER), as is Johnson's (7th), and Andre's (8th). Andre and Joe's passing, AR, keeps them in the top ten, while Monta's UR and passing keeps him in the top ten. Ray's laser-like efficiency keeps him in the top ten.
Small Forward Power Rankings
1. LeBron James: 27.08 PER. LeBron leads the league in PER for the 4th straight year. He's actually receiving less assisted baskets in Miami than he did in Cleveland, which is strange. His numbers are a little down across the board, but here he is, still leading the league in PER. He has a 58.3% TS%, and is shooting a surprising 44.8% on jump shots, suggesting that maybe he's a better shooter than we've given him credit for. LeBron still has the excellent AR, decent TO Rate, great SF Rebound Rate, and his a All-Defense lock. Even more so than Wade, LeBron anchors the 5th best NBA defense, vacillating between positions, all without a centerpiece big man. He's still the best player in the league, and you only have to imagine what his numbers would look like had his opening month been smoother.
2. Kevin Durant: 24. 26 PER. Durant has regressed in his supposed-to-be coming out party. After 26.2 PER last season, Durant has dropped down a couple of points, when he was supposed to increase. Small dips in TS% (from 60.7 to 59.7) a downward spike in Off Rebound Rate, and a thin layer of UR removed culminate in Durant's lesser season. Despite this, he's still a top 10 player and the firm number 2 SF. The biggest problem is Durant increased his number of jump shots. He's shooting a ridiculous 77.8% at the rim this season, yet only attempts 3.9 shots a game there, down from 5.3 a year ago. Durant should be attacking the rim more, which has seen his FTAs dip from last year, instead of settling for jumpers. The Thunder should be a bit better than they are, and Durant needs to assert that he's the best player on this team. More free throws, fewer jumpers, increased rebounding, etc. Another scoring title is nice, but overall production for Durant needs to take off, to fully put himself in LeBron, Wade, Kobe, and Dwight Howard's class.
3. Carmelo Anthony: 21.14 PER. With reservations I put Melo 3rd. Paul Pierce is just a little too far Melo in PER to make up for their defensive disparities. Melo has come on in February, or else he'd easily be 4th. His scoring efficiency is suspect as usual, but his UR is great, his RR is actually really good (the best of his career), and he's pretty good with regards to TO Rate. Carmelo rates out with a good but not elite PER because of his diminutive AR, lack of defensive numbers, and an average TS%. He can't match the efficiency of LeBron, Wade, Durant, or Kobe. His defensive effort doesn't show up in PER, so given that this guy is the league's hottest commodity, the record should show PER doesn't indicate they'd be getting a championship-level player, with bad defensive habits, to boot. Carmelo's ceiling is 22 PER, which is a couple points lower than you'd want out of a bona fide franchise guy.
4. Paul Pierce: 20.02 PER: Right on Melo's heels for 3rd place, given his hyper-efficiency and balls-out defensive effort. Pierce has a ridiculous 62.2% TS%, solid 16% AR, 9% RR, and 9.3% TO Rate, and good UR of 21.4%. He can't match the volume of the guys ahead of him anymore, and it's no coincidence that his rise in efficiency comes with near career-low Usage. Still, Pierce has done great work this season in a cohesive-team way, which is more than can be said about Anthony.
5. Danny Granger: 17.47 PER. Huge drop-off here, and it was between him and Rudy Gay. The PERs are extremely close with Gay having the slight edge. Gay also creates more off the dribble than Granger, with severe differences in their baskets assisted. That implies Granger needs a little more help getting buckets than Gay does, which doesn't affect anything at the PER/team level but it shows greater individual skill. Gay's team has a slight winning record, while the Pacers are below .500. Normally, I'd just give it to Gay, but I'm still taking Granger because this is a down year for him. He's performed Carmelo-esque for the past few years and I'd trust him over Gay, who's basically maxed out who he is as a player. If Gay were having a breakout season of sorts, maybe I'd value that over Granger's down year, but this is a routine game by the vastly overpaid Gay.
Noteworthy Omissions: Maybe Gerald Wallace? He's just not been very good anywhere this season. Luol Deng is basically having the same year he usually has, solid but nothing great. That's about it. Thinnest position, by far. Now on to the deepest position.
Power Forward Power Rankings:
1. Pau Gasol: 23.67 PER. This is the biggest upset on the board. Gasol is 3rd PER, but first on my list, which thus far had been in agreement with PER on the top spots. Gasol, of the five worthy candidates, is the only capable defender. The rest of them are below average. Pau may not be a banger, but he is a 7 footer who protects the paint without fouling. He's not dominate, like Dwight Howard or Tyson Chandler, but I find him to be very effective/a good defender. Quickness and length can be as imposing as brute strength. By the way, has any paragraph about Gasol started out with his defense? Offensively, he still has good PER chops, with an excellent TS% and TO%, good RR, and great PF Assist Rate. The Lakers criminally underuse him and cap his UR, which hurts his PER. He can post-up, face-up, spot-up, and is great at put-backs. He also gets to the line and shoots 78-80% from there. He really is amazingly skilled. If I'm drafting a PF for one season, I have to take Pau because he's the most complete PF today.
2. Kevin Love: 24.51 PER. Good God, it's Kevin Love! I wrestled with having Love first, because well, he's first in PER. Let's review his credentials because his credentials are probably the most fun in the league this year. He has a terrific 23.4% Rebound Rate. He's shooting 59.6% TS, including 44% from 3. If the Lakers actually used Pau correctly, I'd probably give Love the nod, because the Timberwolves certainly underuse Love. He only has a 21.7% UR, despite the fact he should probably be getting the ball every time down the court. He's not totally sharp from everywhere yet, but he's a pretty good post-up player, and he can really nail the 3. He's solid in regards to TO%, and AR. What kept Love from the top spot is his below average defense. If he can get to be a solid defender, then we're talking about a legitimate franchise player. Nonetheless, sitting at number 2 amongst the deepest position in the league is extremely impressive.
3. Dirk Nowitzki: 23.41 PER. This is really hard. Amare has the PER advantage, but some of that has to do with blocked shots that Amare collects, but as we all know, he can't defend at all. Dirk is okay, I guess, but he's gotta be better than Amare. Dirk is shooting an outrageous 61.7% TS. He has a good 25.4% UR, and an exceptional 8.9 TO%. He's not a good rebounder but we've learned to cope with that shortcoming. Dirk's game seems more consistent, with Amare being unstoppable in stretches and cold in others. I'd take the guy I could count on.
4. Amare Stoudemire: 24.19 PER. Amare has kicked up his UR and AR to new highs, helping to compensate for the fact his TS% is quite a bit lower than his career average of 60.2%. This is just his 3rd best year in terms of PER, considering he's the main man now. His defense is still a problem and I have no idea how the Knicks plan on building a contender around Amare and a possible Carmelo's defensive liabilities. He turns the ball over a bit, and he doesn't rebound. But he can score efficiently in bunches. It's hard not to get enamored with his offensive game, where he can shoot from anywhere inside the arc, and faces-up nicely for nifty finishes and/or drawing contact. And no matter his rank on this list, his 24+ PER is terrific, there's just a lot of great PF play.
5. Blake Griffin: 23.51 PER. Proving to be more than just a highlight reel, Blake is already a franchise PF, midway into his rookie year. He excels with his high UR and excellent RR. Blake absolutely crashes the boards. He has a good AR for a PF and his TO% is solid. The TS% is decent, and is dependent on his ability to improve his free throw shooting. He's trying to stretch his range with 4.7 jumpers a game, at a wince inducing 35.1% eFG. At some point, you have to believe Blake will improve that number a bit (maybe not Amare's level, but improvement, nonetheless), and his FT shooting. His inside game is pretty sharp, using an array of moves to get to the basket. His passing is deceptively good, as well. There's no ceiling to Blake, who could be flirting with 30 PERs soon.
Noteworthy Omissions: Too many to list. There are 8 more players with at least 20 PERs. Garnett would probably get the first nod because his defense is better than anybody's at the position. But the position has a bunch of great players at it, so we'll just celebrate that.
Center Power Rankings
1. Dwight Howard: 25.49 PER. No surprise here. Dwight has a career high in UR, and his typically high Rebound Rate, Block Rate, and 60% TS%. His defense is reportedly a little less dominant, but the Magic's defensive rating is better than last year's (barely), despite playing with a slew of non-defenders. I'm going to assume that just because his blocks are little down, the defense is a taught as ever.
2. Al Horford: 22.58 PER. An upset at number two! A career year for Horford, who has bumped his UR but is still undervalued and underused by the Hawks. There's the great 60.1% TS%, the terrific center AR of 19.3, and the TO% of 7.8. He's a solid defensive center on the 13th best defense. He's a 53.5% jump shooter, and is just as effective on the inside, 72,7% at the rim and 46.7% inside ten feet. It's weird people lament the lack of great big men today and then totally underuse one of the best ones in the game. Horford is for real.
3. Tim Duncan: 21.58 PER. Duncan is 4th in PER but is still strong on defense where Nene is just mediocre, and their PERs are splitting hairs apart. Good rebounding and turnover numbers, despite scoring inefficiency and a lowered UR. It's a down year for Duncan but still a productive one, so the tales of his decline are understated, considering his minutes have been lowered.
4. Nene: 21.76 PER. I wanted Nene to be higher because he's an underrated guy, but even with his mind-blowing 69.6% TS, PER still sees the holes. His Rebound Rate is okay, at best, his TO% is just okay, and his UR is pretty pedestrian at 17%. Nene is an average defender, but ultimately, his value is in the fact he leads the league in FG% every year. He has great hands, makes hard cuts to the basket and finishes the hell out of the ball. He's not a guy you post-up, but you gotta give it to him when he's rolling or is set up deep.
5. Andrew Bynum: 20.71 PER. Injuries aside, Bynum is a really good player. He's so big, he changes everything at the rim, even if he's not Howard/Chandler-esque. His numbers are solid all across the board, except for a really good TS%, and when you add that up into a 7'1" 280lb body, you get a really good center. AR, UR, RR, TO% is all good, not great, but it adds up. He doesn't have any holes, even if he doesn't dominate anywhere.
Noteworthy Omissions
Joakim Noah/Tyson Chandler/Andrew Bogut/Al Jefferson: Noah turns the ball over a bit, but he's a really good rebounder and has a good TO% and AR and TS%. Great defender. Chandler: Awesome TS%, transcendent defender, great rebounder. Too low of a UR and a high TO%, though. Bogut: Bad TS%, but is pretty good everywhere else, plus he's a really, really good defender. Unsightly TS%, though. Jefferson: Awesome TO% and just okay everywhere else. Not in top form.
Power Rankings: Top Ten Teams
1. Spurs- 44-8, +7.2 point differential. They've been really healthy and their PD, while great, isn't as blazing as their record. Still, they have 6 games on the next closest team, have three 20+ PER players, and are great on their home court.
2. Heat- 38-14 +7.9. When the Big Three play, they're a really great team now. Best PD in the league, but they could use another signature win than just the Christmas win over the Lakers.
3. Boston- 38-14 +6.7. They just lost to the Lakers, but they have a game and a half on the Lakers, plus are still missing Shaq, Delonte West, and Marques Daniels. The defense is more imposing than the Lakers offense.
4. Lakers- 37-16 +6.7. They got their first signature win, but the Lakers still need more consistent defense. Four players over 20 PER, though, is really impressive.
5. Bulls- 35-16 +5.7. It's hard not to think that the Bulls are going to start rolling over people when they get Noah back. The league's best defense is going to keep improving, and Noah might even add a spark to their MOR offense.
6. Mavericks- 37-16 +3.0. I'm takin Dallas here because that time without Nowitzki was brutal. Nowitzki and Chandler are carrying the Mavs, but this is in hopes that Roddy Beaubois can inject life into their offense.
7. Magic- 34-20 +5.5. PD suggests Orlando should be better than they are. Jameer Nelson continues to ride the career roller coaster, and currently he's not pulling his weight and Gilbert Arenas has been awful. On the other hand, the Bass/Anderson combo has been killer. Richardson and Turkoglu have been disappointments but solid rotation guys. They need more scoring and nobody is stepping up.
8. Hornets 32-22 +2.4. Paul is the 2nd best player in the league and David West is having his best year. But after Emeka Okafor, who's hurt at the moment, New Orleans doesn't have a quality guy anywhere, not until Marcus Thornton starts shooting the ball well again. It's a 2 1/2 man team, which is good enough for 8th in the league, but not a real contender. They need some help.
9. Thunder 33-18 +1.9. The Hornets are tough when everybody is healthy. The Thunder are healthy and have every game come down to the wire and can't perform against the top teams. Durant and Westbrook are basically playing Serge Ibaka and that's it. James Harden is solid but doesn't get enough minutes, and the rest of the guys are middling. Missing an impacting big man besides Ibaka.
10. Atlanta 33-19 +1.4. A solid quad of Horford, Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith, but they lack much depth. Horford should be the number 1 guy, and the rest of those guys are 3rd bananas. It's a mismatched team that has enough top -end talent to be where they are.
Midseason Awards:
MVP: LeBron James. Best PER, 2nd best record. Who else?
Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard. 3rd best defense, yet plays with zero good defenders. All credit to the big man.
6th man: Lou Williams. 18.8 PER, best among 6th men. Lamar Odom has started more games than sat, so he doesn't count.
Most Improved Player: Eric Gordon. Everyone is giving this to Kevin Love but Love only jumped about 4.5 points in PER, while Gordon jumped 7.
Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich. Racking up wins, resting his players, developing a strong bench. Good enough for me.
All-NBA First Team
G: Chris Paul
G: Dwyane Wade
F: LeBron James
F: Pau Gasol
C: Dwight Howard
All-NBA Second Team
G: Russell Westbrook
G: Kobe Bryant
F: Kevin Durant
F: Kevin Love
C: Al Horford
All-NBA Third Team
G: Derrick Rose
G: Manu Ginobili
F: Dirk Nowitzki
F: Amare Stoudemire
C: Tim Duncan
A Welcome Back and a Change in Format
It's been months since I've posted and I was ready to give MEC up. However, Google made it impossible to disable my domain name, so my $10 charge was activated for another year. I'm also questioning my writing chops. I'm paying for it, so why not use it? Everyone says just to hammer away and if you're good, they'll find you. Here's to hoping that eventually happens.
The change in format. MEC grew into an advanced stats haven, which became very dogmatic in the use of Win Shares. I've since seen Win Shares is fallible in its own right. Though it was useful, it also had its flaws. The incorporation of Defensive Rating caused too much fluctuation between year-to-year statistics, even though a player was playing comparable basketball across that time. Look at the Cavs, for instance. A lot of those guys (Mo Williams, J.J. Hickson, Jamario Moon) were looking good because they were playing on a great defensive team, even though Mo and J.J. couldn't/can't guard anybody. Now, they're one of the worst defenses in the league and their defensive rating shows that. Too much fluctuation, due to a couple of players leaving, when really those guys could never defend in the first place (besides Moon).
Also, I saw too little importance on shot creation. Usage Rate isn't treated as a skill like I feel like it should be. For instance, Win Shares per48 has Tyson Chandler as the third best player this year. I love Chandler, he's had a great year, but 3rd?
I pledge my allegiance to PER. Unlike WS, PER doesn't try to quantify defense. It seems to get it right in terms of collecting advanced stats and placing them into a cumulative number. It's up to the user to skew PER with their own subjective views of player defense. So PER is the stat of choice around here, until something can dethrone it.
It feels all right to be back to writing about basketball.
The change in format. MEC grew into an advanced stats haven, which became very dogmatic in the use of Win Shares. I've since seen Win Shares is fallible in its own right. Though it was useful, it also had its flaws. The incorporation of Defensive Rating caused too much fluctuation between year-to-year statistics, even though a player was playing comparable basketball across that time. Look at the Cavs, for instance. A lot of those guys (Mo Williams, J.J. Hickson, Jamario Moon) were looking good because they were playing on a great defensive team, even though Mo and J.J. couldn't/can't guard anybody. Now, they're one of the worst defenses in the league and their defensive rating shows that. Too much fluctuation, due to a couple of players leaving, when really those guys could never defend in the first place (besides Moon).
Also, I saw too little importance on shot creation. Usage Rate isn't treated as a skill like I feel like it should be. For instance, Win Shares per48 has Tyson Chandler as the third best player this year. I love Chandler, he's had a great year, but 3rd?
I pledge my allegiance to PER. Unlike WS, PER doesn't try to quantify defense. It seems to get it right in terms of collecting advanced stats and placing them into a cumulative number. It's up to the user to skew PER with their own subjective views of player defense. So PER is the stat of choice around here, until something can dethrone it.
It feels all right to be back to writing about basketball.
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