Portland vs Dallas

We established the formula here for playoff success. 2 stars plus one more good guy, reliable defensive bigs, and a perimeter scrapper. The teams we found matched the criteria were the Bulls, Lakers, and Thunder. Obviously that leaves out Dallas and Portland, so those two are missing something. In both cases, each team is playing with 1 of the required 2 stars. Let's just break it down, to see where the advantages are in this series that seems the mostly hotly contested in the 1st RD.

My main question is, who's the second and third best players for these teams? We obviously give Dirk the best player edge, but with the caveat that LaMarcus Aldridge is closely in his class. When it comes to 2nd best, both the Blazers and Mavs are playing with a couple of solid 3rd bananas but nobody close to star level. The Mavs will roll out Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion, and washed-up Jason Terry. The Blazers will roll out Gerald Wallace, Andre Miller, and Wes Matthews. Chandler has to edge Wallace (big man advantage) despite almost identical PERs, Miller edges Marion, and Matthews over Terry, but really you're splitting hairs way too finely.

But here's why I like Portland, considering both are comparatively solid offensively and defensively and stock-full of role players who aren't on the level of their respective stars: Portland knows who they are. Dallas still seems so much in flux for me, that I can't imagine them knowing who's going to play for them. Portland will roll out the lineup of Miller/Matthews/Wallace/Aldridge/Camby + Batum/Roy/Fernandez, with the ability to play Aldridge at the 5, Wallace at the 4, and Batum at the 3. Against the Mavs, going small does the Blazers no harm because Chandler can't score and Dirk plays at the foul line extended. Does Portland have holes with their top 2 lineups? Sure. But they basically know what they're getting from everybody on the court, and thus, the players can play with some semblance of cohesion, despite Wallace's addition being only a couple of months old.

Dallas, on the other hand, is too amorphous to get a hold of, despite home court advantage. What role does Beaubois play, who's talented but lost right now. DeShawn Stevenson is back in the lineup, but why? Corey Brewer has played well since coming to Dallas and provides good perimeter defense that Chandler needs to hold down the fort. Kidd starts but Berea is more effective a lot of times, and they both suck defensively. Jason Terry has the green light to shoot when Dirk doesn't, but Terry has been off all year. I like that you know what you're getting out of Shawn Marion, but it isn't offense. These are both jump shooting teams, except the Blazers can go to the post with Aldridge. And they both are streaky at best shooting the ball, when you factor out Dirk and look at his inferior teammates. Portland has guys on the uptick, save for the hobbled Brandon Roy, while Dallas has players scrambling to keep their heads above water. Wallace, Batum, Matthews, and Miller are playing super hard, more or less maxing out their abilities. But Dallas has a gunner in Terry who is more likely to go 5-16 than carry an offense. Jason Kidd's job is to pass to Dirk and shoot 3s, but his 3 has been way, way off this year. Brewer has played well but that's in a small sample and has been really shaky offensively thus far into his career. Beaubois is obviously committing arson on his potential. Other guys like Chandler, Marion, and Berea are solid and maxing themselves out, but I just named off 4 people are not reliable at all.

Glad I got that sorted out.