Finding the Formula

Watch out, I'm gonna get real Bill Simmons in about five seconds.

Leaving behind PER and shooting breakdowns, I'm going to search for the contenders using a tried and true formula that sits somewhere in the basketball abstract. Basically, you need at least two stars/scorers, tough inside players who rebound, defend the paint and rim, and a perimeter guy who plays D, sacrifices shots, and takes little off the table. History shows us this time and time again, almost without fail.

The Lakers had A) Kobe, Pau B) Pau, Odom, Bynum C) Ariza/Artest. The Celtics had A) Pierce, Garnett, Allen B) Garnett, Perkins, P.J. Brown, Baby, Powe C) Posey. The Spurs had A) Duncan, Ginobili, Parker B) Duncan, Robinson, Oberto, Mohammad, Elson, Nesterovic, Rose, Horry C) Bowen. The Pistons had A) Billups, Sheed, Hamilton B) The Wallaces, Okur, Campbell C) Prince. Even the bizarreo Heat team had A) Shaq, Wade B) Shaq, Mourning, Haslem C) Posey. The early 00s Lakers had it; so did the 90s Bulls. There hasn't been one championship team in the past 20 years, not even the 04 Pistons who often are called the anomaly, who won without those 3 factors. When we look at the past couple of seasons, it shouldn't be so surprising that the Cavs kept coming up short. First of all, they had no 2nd star, which should have been the most alarming red flag. In addition, 08-09's big man rotation glacial Big Z, Andy, and Ben Wallace. That's solid, but they could have used one extra banger to offset Z's weaknesses and Andy's finesse style (as opposed to Ben's aggressive, tough style). Last year, they again had no 2nd star. But Shaq, Andy, Z, as well as Jamison and Hickson (total sieves), still were missing one extra guy down low. And we all blamed LeBron, (well, not me).

We're going to find out which of the 16 playoff teams have this formula, to see who the real contenders are.

Indiana: Stars (Scorers)- Danny Granger & N/A. No second star, mixed size (short at PF, good at C), and no real scrapper on the perimeter. As expected, they're out.

Memphis: Stars- Randolph, Allen. Size- Randolph, Gasol, Arthur. Scrappers- Allen, Young, Battier. Really, only Randolph is the star, but Tony Allen has been awesome this year. The size is mediocre at best; only because Randolph is such a good rebounder, only Gasol protects the paint. Nobody does scrappiness better than Memphis, though. Still, the first two categories come up too thin. Not enough star power on this team, and they're missing an extra banger.

Philadelphia: They score by committee, and their leading scorer, Elton Brand averages 15 a game. This team has 4 real quality players on the team, but no stars. They also have no size. They're out.

New Orleans: Stars- Paul. Size: Okafor. Scrappers: Ariza. One of each. That's not enough. David West could have added to the stars list but his ACL exploded. Too bad.

New York: Stars- Melo, Stoudemire, Billups. Size- Turiaf, Shelden Williams. Scrappers: Fields, Douglas. The Knicks have guys that meet the criteria. Unfortunately, Turiaf is nothing more than a backup on a good team, and Shelden gets DNP-CDs on good teams. They can't protect the rim/paint or enforce any kind of toughness. Fields isn't a lockdown defender and Douglas shoots a little too much though he defends well. The Knicks are simply too thin.

Portland: Stars- Aldridge, Wallace. Size: Camby, Aldridge, Przybilla. Scrappers: Batum, Wallace. Too short on star power without Roy healthy, and they could use another big man, for sure. Good scrappers, though! It's cool what Aldridge did becoming a real star, and it's nice how the Blazers stayed relevant but they're too thin.

Atlanta: Their best player isn't their best scorer, and their best scorer is inefficient and semi-washed up. That's bad news already. Horford, Smith, Collins, Zaza take care of the size, but they don't have a scrapper, unless you want to get really generous on Marvin Williams. Not a very good offensive team, because Horford is the #3 or #4 option. The Hawks are doomed.

Denver: Stars- Nene, screw it--Ty Lawson. Size- Nene, Kenyon, Birdman. Scrappers- Afflalo. Having to talk myself into Ty Lawson, who went 10-11(!) from 3, is not good for star power. And Nene is the star here but he's not one of the 20 best players in the league. The size is okay, and Afflalo fits the bill of scrapper, but the Nugs are too short on stars.

Orlando: Stars- Only Dwight. Size- Only Dwight. Scrappers- None. The Magic have nothing besides Dwight; they aren't winning.

Oklahoma City: Stars- Durant, Westbrook. Size- Perkins, Ibaka, Collison, Mohammad. Scrappers- Sefolosha. Totally fit the bill. They hit every category without a stretch.

Miami: Stars- LeBron, Wade, Bosh. Size- Z, Dampier, Bosh, Anthony, Howard, Magloire. Scrappers: None. Stars are covered, obviously, but that's very, very questionable size even though they have the bodies. Z doesn't protect anything on defense, and Dampier has been very washed-up this year rebounding. Anthony can't rebound or play a lick of offense. Howard can't defend anybody and Magloire barely gets off the bench. Bosh is Bosh--he's decent at best defensively and a solid rebounder, but no means an anchor. And given that there's no Bowen-type on the team means the Heat might only have 1 of 3 on the checklist, although that's a big 1. I'm torn on the size category. They're 5th defensively and they have the bodies, but is that good enough? I'll give them a half point, but that's all I can do. They really need a Camby, Marc Gasol, or DeAndre Jordan; one true defensive big man gives all those bodies more purpose. They're just no good rotation players at the big positions, much less starters. Haslem could help them out there if he weren't dead. R.I.P.

Dallas: Stars- Nowitzki. Size- Chandler, Haywood. Scrappers- Marion, Brewer. Outside of Chandler, who can't score a lick, they don't have anything close to a #2 for Dirk. Roddy B has been bad and Jason Terry is just okay. They're also missing another big man in the rotation to bang around in the paint. Dirk is playing with junk outside of Chandler.

Boston: Stars- Garnett, Pierce. Size- Garnett, the O'Neals, Krstic, Baby. Scrappers: Delonte. The stars category is pretty weak. In no series will the Celtics have the best player on the floor. Against Miami, they won't have the 1st or 2nd best player on the floor. Despite the Hall of Famers, star power was not their strong suit. Giving away Perkins knocks them down on size considering Krstic isn't really a protector, and the O'Neals' health are very much in question. Jeff Green doesn't scrap, though he should, and Delonte doesn't see enough minutes to swing games. Rajon Rondo finding his 5th gear would help them in a big way but he's been pretty role player-ish this year.

Los Angeles: Stars- Kobe, Pau, Bynum. Size: Bynum, Gasol, Odom. Scrappers: Artest, Barnes. Bynum has been great this year and he deserves to be a star, considering he's the 2nd best center in the league and it's not really close. The Lakers hit every check-mark.

Chicago: Stars- Rose, Boozer, Noah. Size- Noah, Gibson, Thomas, Asik. Scrappers: Deng, Brewer, Bogans. Size and scrappers are the big checkmark. Rose has the stars covered but are Boozer and Noah enough to give the Bulls full credit? Boozer scores 17.7 a game and Noah isn't much of a scorer. Deng is the 3rd leading scorer with almost 18 but he's just solid. Rose, Boozer, and Noah can't touch Miami's top 3, but is it enough to keep from compromising the advantage the Bulls have in the other 2 categories? Boozer's PER, 19.3, is a little too low to be a legitimate #2 guy on a championship contender, but remember that every team is flawed this year.

San Antonio: Stars- Duncan, Ginobili, Parker. Size- Duncan, Blair, McDyess. Scrappers: Hill? The stars are covered. They may not have the best player in most series, but 3 20+ PER guys will work fine. The size is questionable; Duncan is still good, not dominant. McDyess and Blair are too small to protect the paint much and they're missing a true scrapper. Despite the best record in the league, it seems pretty underdog-ish for San Antonio.

When you tally up the teams that hit the mark and can win the championship this year, it looks like on Chicago, Los Angeles, or Oklahoma City can win. Los Angeles is the obvious favorite, again, since they have the star advantage (and home-court) against Chicago. Chicago has more toughness on their frontline but LA has more sheer size. Artest and Barnes are the ultimate scrappers, while Chicago gets by on a revolving door of good scrappers. OKC has every mark but still come a tick behind the Lakers in all 3 categories.

LA over Chicago in 6.