Harden Rising

In 2009, when the rebuilding Thunder received the #3 pick, it was a hot-button issue for a team that could go a hundred different directions. Everyone agreed they had a lot of promise and the #3 pick could be the one to send them over the top. Nearly two seasons removed from that draft, there's been several rewrites of the perspective of it.

The Thunder of course chose Arizona State shooting guard, James Harden, and in effect, signed off on Russell Westbrook being the undisputed point guard. In 2010, Tyreke Evans stole the rookie show, posting that arbitrarily appreciated statistic of 20-5-5. Evans could have been with the Thunder and there was a lot 'what ifs' attached to the Kings combo guard. The guard-heavy draft could have also netted the Thunder Stephen Curry, Ricky Rubio, DeMar DeRozan, or Brandon Jennings. Rubio, at the moment of the Harden announcement, was the player everyone thought, "How can they pass on Rubio?" Well, now we know the Rubio story and it would have been a disaster. Not to mention, the word is he's regressed and isn't so coveted anymore. We also didn't know that Westbrook was on the verge of becoming a top 10 player.

The Tyreke Evans train has come to a screeching halt. No longer celebrated after his team failed to improve, as did he, Evans is now a little bit like damaged goods. His impressive 18.2 rookie PER has plummeted to 14.6. And despite battling Plantar Fasciitis, Evans has been a negative for the woeful Kings this season. His ball-dominating ways, questionable attitude, and poor shooting ability isn't making anybody in the world wonder (I sincerely hope not, anyway) 'what if' about Evans any longer. DeRozan has a 13.4 PER thus far into career, can't shoot, and lacks any upper-class skill besides athleticism. Maybe he wasn't a realistic option with the 3rd pick, but if he was panning out, people would be revising the draft to accommodate him. The same thing basically goes for Brandon Jennings (BJ3 is a little better than DD and has more 50 point games than Kevin Durant), except he plays Westbrook's position, so he's out.

That leaves Stephen Curry as the only legitimate competition to Harden as revisionist history's number 3 pick. Curry has an impressive 19.5 PER this season, which gives him 17.6 thus far in his career. He shoots 43.2% on 3s, which is far and away better than anything OKC has. Curry has enough combo-guard in him that if he had to, he could be an undersized 2-guard a la Jason Terry. Curry is an electrifying youngster while Harden is known much more for his potent beard than he is for his game. He also has a 15.3 career PER, including 16.4 this season, which isn't up to Curry's standards. But is Harden still the better pick? The answer actually seems obvious.

First and foremost, Curry is a sieve defensively in Golden State. And he's guarding point guards! A defensive backcourt of Curry/Westbrook trying to match-up with Kobe, Manu, and Eric Gordon in the West seems bleak at best. Harden is bigger, stronger, and more capable defensively. Given his strides made on defense, I'd rate him a 'good' defender. Also, Curry is the co #1 option on a team that doesn't give a damn. A higher Usage Rate is good for a player's PER, so it stands to reason that Curry gets to flex his PER a little bit while Harden is in a staunch pecking order behind Durant and Westbrook, especially since Harden actually has a higher True Shooting Percentage than Curry.

The revelation with Harden, who struggled early on and as recently as the trade deadline I thought the Thunder should ship him off for a missing piece, has been the departure of Jeff Green. Green was a shot-jacker, who through perceived versatility and seniority, was able to coax the role of #3 scorer for Scott Brooks. With Green and his inefficiency gone, a huge hole opened up for somebody to take shots not numbered 35 and 0. The obvious choice was Harden, but people wondered if he was ready. He was.

Since the trade, Harden is shooting 50.6% from the field and scoring 17.7 PPG. His Usage Rate keeps climbing, up to 19% now. That's legitimate #3 option material, which is most certainly what the Thunder need with Durant/Westbrook in place. I'd like to know Harden's PER since the trade, but that information is not easy to come by, and I can't calculate it. Just know is has to be flirting with the 18-19 range--more than high enough to get this team where they want to go.

Most teams want their #3 pick to carry their franchise. Harden isn' that guy and OKC knew that from the start. But they wanted a real shooting guard and they got one. And then some.