Questions Rising for the Thunder

Arguably no organization has garnered more positive press than the Oklahoma City Thunder. Analysts have become enamored with their shrewd way of stockpiling draft picks, young talent, and managing their budget. General Manager Sam Presti and head coach Scott Brooks preach the importance of character and growing together. People fall over themselves praising the abstract, blue-collar approach to team-building, especially in contrast to the evil conglomerate of the Miami Heat. It makes for a nice story, but now, I'm starting to wonder if Presti is sitting back watching his garden grow, or if he's still working like the quiet genius he's portrayed to be, in order to patch up the bare spots of the Thunder.

Let's give Presti his due credit, for drafting Russell Westbrook, a controversial pick, and Serge Ibaka, a late-round project. We can't give him props for Kevin Durant; he lucked into the 2nd pick via the lottery, and any other team in the league would have taken Durant. He drafted in a spot where you're supposed to get a great player and he got one.

If you're going to praise Presti for seeing the value in the raw talents of Westbrook and Ibaka, you have to admit there were flaws, even if we pretend like they aren't any. The Jeff Green pick was a massive miss. In moderate defense of that, the next picks were Yi, Corey Brewer, and Brendan Wright--some awful basketball players. However, Jeff Green didn't make sense from the outset given that he was a "tweener" forward, and they had just drafted Durant. More damning, Joakim Noah was on the board and went ninth, after Wright. Can you imagine Noah as a Thunder, flying around on defense, rebounding, and generally doing all of the things that make him a terrific center? A title contender they would be! Green is the bane of the Thunder's existence and is a constant question mark from any angle (Brooks', Presti's, the team).

In an ongoing bout of poor analysis, Green gets mentioned in national telecasts as the 3rd guy, the guy who "doesn't do one thing great, but does everything well." Listen for it. You'll hear it. Somehow this team and Green especially has earned some undue respect, when really, Green should be getting called out for his play, or Brooks' insistence of playing him. In his four seasons, Green is averaging 14.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.9 turnovers. He's a career 44.2% shooter, 33.9% from 3, and 76.9% FT. Unimpressive considering he's averaged 34.6 MPG, including 37+ this year and last year. He's regressed in PER, down to 12.7, which John Hollinger considers a shade below being "in the rotation." I'm assuming being in the rotation doesn't mean playing almost 40 minutes a game.

Night after night, in a league overflowing with power forwards, the Thunder are getting waxed by opposing PFs, in large part due to Green unable to defend them. He's too small and too soft to provide any resistance. He's not a very good player, and the Thunder win in spite of him.

But Green is being miscast. He's clearly not a PF. Even if his body could have told us that, his game has demonstrated over the past 4 years that he's a small forward. He can't be faulted for playing the position his coach tells him too. Ultimately, it's up the coaches and the front-office to correct ongoing fallacies within the team, and Green's role is the biggest aperture. The most absurd thing is, Serge Ibaka is sitting right there, begging to sop up those porous minutes. Ibaka is 3rd in PER, is clearly growing, whereas Green as plateaued, and has the mindset to be a big man, even if he's only a little bigger than Green. Ibaka does a good job cooling off red-hot PFs who are slaying Green, while swatting shots at one of the best rates in the league. Ibaka also has a surprisingly good 16-18 foot jump-shot, which is more than Green can boast, so they can't act as if Green has an offensive advantage (Ibaka is shooting 45% from 16-23, Green is shooting 39%). Fans can't understand why Ibaka isn't getting more minutes, to the point they're frustrated.

The Thunder keep preaching how they need to get their 48-minute defense in order, like it was a year ago, but Scott Brooks is reluctant to make any adjustments. I get the feeling that Brooks imagines his team descending into apocalyptic chaos if he made a change, so he sticks with familiarity. I recently read a piece that suggested that the Thunder's defense was slightly overachieving last year (and it was only 9th in the league to begin with), and that regression had to be expected. They aren't a great rebounding team and they don't defend the rim very well. Opposing teams shoot 59.6% in the paint (not including dunks or tips), and 44.6% in jumpers. Compare that to the Celtics stifling defense who allow teams to shoot a nearly-identical 44.1% on jumpers, but allow 52.7% in the paint. Also, the Thunder are allowing a whopping 19.6 PER to opposing PFs, the Celtics just 14.9. They're trying to get back to a level they aren't capable of. Westbrook, Sefolosha, Durant, and Harden are nice wing complements to a defensive scheme, but defense is about protecting the paint. Nick Collison is their best defensive big, but he's too small to resist post-ups or to handedly grab defensive rebounds. Ibaka is long and athletic as can hell, but he still has to refine his defensive instincts to keep from fouling, and understanding help defense. Green can't guard anybody, except maybe small forwards. And Nenad Krstic is solid, but far from an anchor, though he isn't a sieve.

There seems to be too much laissez faire-ness going on in Oklahoma City. They keep with the tagline that they're a young team and patience is in order. But as Bill Simmons has pointed out in his podcast, they have two of the best ten players in the league and they can't guarantee they'll have this window forever. The Thunder management like to think Durant/Westbrook will be around for 15 years, so there's no need to do anything rash, but the NBA is fickle. Injuries can derail a career, and these two aren't immune to a Grant Hill/Penny Hardaway future, or even the ongoing Brandon Roy saga. The NBA title is up for grabs, especially with uncertainty in the powers of the West. The Lakers look a step slow, and the Spurs are vulnerable, despite their robust record. Why wouldn't the Thunder try to seize the West this year? Right now, even carrying a 50-win pace, the Thunder have an underwhelming +1.7 point differential. That suggests they aren't a serious contender, which is a disservice to Durant and Westbrook. Currently, James Harden and Ibaka are being underused, not maximizing the talent the Thunder have available. Thabo Sefolosha isn't defending with the fervor he did a year ago, so he's on the court, practically leaving the Thunder to play 4-on-5 on offense. Still, Sef gets a couple more minutes a game than Harden, when Harden should be doubling up Sef. Ibaka and Green should be flip-flopped, in terms of minutes allocations. It'd also make sense to let rookie center Cole Aldrich get some playing time, to see if he can provide a spark like Ibaka provided a year ago.

It'd make sense for them to use their assets to nab somebody before the deadline, but they probably won't. The Thunder can't seriously compete until they get some size to deter teams from living in the paint against them. And they're not going to win with Scott Brooks' missionary-position coaching, or Presti sitting on these twenty-somethings waiting to see what happens. Once Westbrook showed he was for real, all bets should have been off. They should have been aggressively finding complementary pieces, instead of thinking that Green, Sefolosha, and Krstic were going to magically gel into a super-unit, despite lacking the inherent ability to do so. Green is a free-agent at the end of the season. The Thunder could absolutely re-sign him, and they'd be stuck in the same place they are now. If Presti is really shrewd, he'd let Green walk, but what does that do? They'll have an extra 5 million bucks in their pocket to do what? The most tantalizing prospect would be the possibility of signing the soon-to-be 31 year old David West, who still wouldn't solve their rebounding/post-defense issues. I like West, and he's a 19-20 PER guy, but does that put the Thunder in the elite class? I don't think so. Greg Oden is dripping with potential but can't stay healthy, as you know all too well, so a team can't tie their championship wagon to Oden, who'd also be a restricted free agent.

Where at one point, I thought the Thunder were on their way to dominate the league, to become the next dynasty like the Spurs were, I now think they are tragically flawed. Until the braintrust shows some balls, I'm resigning my expectations to the 53 win team that can't get out of the semi-finals because they can't defend the paint. It's going to take Brooks to allow Harden to grow into the team's 3rd scorer and an extra playmaker, for a team struggling to move the ball, that's not a bad idea. And most importantly, he needs to cement Serge Ibaka as the full-time PF. It's going to take Presti to cash in on his assets, and spring for a quality big man. The Thunder are too talented at the top to keep being dragged along by their conservative powers-that-be.