Looking Close at Melo

Within the week, maybe even this weekend, we're going to know the fate of Carmelo Anthony--be it remaining a Nugget, or becoming a Knick or Net. Melo has always been one of the biggest names in the NBA, and now, he's virtually hijacked NBA newsfeeds. The Knicks and Nets are drooling at the prospects of landing one of the most coveted scorers in the league, but I think there's an understood acknowledgement among even semi-invested NBA fans that Melo isn't quite elite. We know the names: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Howard, Durant (not to mention the fact Chris Paul should be recognized in that category but isn't). Melo isn't one of those guys, and thankfully, no one really has to write the fact that he isn't since we all get it at this point.

What, though, is actually on Melo's resume that flashes his credentials and also damns him the elite? Let's break it down.

The Credentials:

This is easy stuff; Melo is one of the best in the league at using possessions, which makes him a legitimate lead man. He's averaged 28.4% Usage Rate per season since coming into the league. He does so with a solid (roughly league average) TS%, with a career mark of 54.4%. He's reasonable in regards to Turnover Rate and is a good positional rebounder, especially during the last few years.

In credit to Melo, who can seem aloof and mercurial at times, he consistently leads (or comes close) to leading the league in shots at the rim, instead of settling for jumpers and cashing checks. Melo is good at the rim 59-61%, if not spectacular, and he's rewarded by averaging a career 7.9 FTs a game. And unlike LeBron, he knows his limitations as a 3 point shooter--2.3 a game in his career (31.1%), while LeBron is at 4.2 at 33%. For scorers, long 2s are just a part of the game, because lanes get too clogged to get to the rim every time, so Melo's high number of long 2s are a necessary evil, but he typically shoots a solid 40% from that spot. Melo is also, statistically, the most clutch player in the NBA. He shoots extremely well on game-tying/winning shots in the final seconds.

The Damners:

Melo is kind of a ball-hog. Or at least an unskilled passer. His per season Assist Rate is a paltry 10.6. It's safe to say he doesn't do the ole "make his teammates better," other than the natural attention he draws from defenses. For somebody like Durant, a bad AR makes sense, because Russell Westbrook dominates the ball and Durant gets most of his baskets assisted. But Melo is one of the biggest shot creators in the league, akin to LeBron, but unlike LeBron, Carmelo pounds the ball for himself, not for others. With only observational evidence available, Melo is also a bad defender. He never transformed his athleticism into defensive prowess like LeBron or Wade.

Let's also damn one of his credentials. Durant is a career 57.6% TS, LeBron is 56.3, Wade is 56.6. Sure, Melo is in the neighborhood of those guys, but he's still at least 2% lower, not to mention, LeBron and Wade have gaudy assist numbers throughout their careers.

He's also quietly not very durable. Out of 631 possible games for him to play in, Melo has played in 89.4% of them. LeBron has played 95.6% of them. He's missed 10+ games in 3 of his past 4 seasons, and he's already missed 7 this season.

The bottom line crevice in Melo is his PER, without even considering his poor defense. His career PER is 20.2, which is good player material, bur not "franchise guy" level. 24-25 PER is ideal for a true lead man. LeBron's career PER is 26.8, and Wade's 25.6. Melo's best year was a year ago, which was 22.2 PER (he's also had 22.1, and 22). Even at his best, Melo isn't quite at a level where he can be your #1 guy leading you to a championship.

Credit the Knicks for not throwing the works at the Nuggets to obtain him; it appears Donnie Walsh knows that Amare and Melo and scraps aren't enough to compete in the East. I'm not quite sure why Melo is craving to play on a team that will certainly be worse than the one he's on now, or even considering playing on a hopeless team in New Jersey. But there it is, Melo's resume, which is pretty checkered. Ultimately, he's not going to swing anything significantly at the top of the league.