Catching Up, Diving In

Since we're approximately mid-season, I thought it'd be good to get a scope on how I see the league. Top 5 position power rankings. Team power rankings. Mid-season awards. The typical stuff, with PER/Hoopdata to assist me along the way.

Point Guard Power Rankings

1. Chris Paul: 25.46 PER. The Win Shares incarnation of MEC would tell you that you were an idiot for saying anybody but Paul was the best PG in the league. The current incarnation would tell you the same thing. Chris Paul has no weaknesses. There seemed to be a notion at least a couple of years ago that he couldn't really shoot. Well, Paul has an extraordinary 61.3% TS% and is a 51% eFG jump shooter, which is excellent. Paul bests all of his top competitors in Turnover Rate. He leads the league in steals, plays solid defense, rebounds well at his position and is among the best passers in the league. The only thing holding him back is his 22.4% Usage Rate which is too low for someone as good as he is. The conventional wisdom is Paul is holding back because of the giant knee-brace he has to wear to protect his ailing knee. Even with a timid knee, Paul is slaying the league's PGs.

2. Russell Westbrook: 24.07 PER. Westbrook is the controversial number 2 pick here. The first couple of months had a red-hot Deron WIlliams and would have been in this spot had it not been for this downer February. Westbrook is great in terms of Usage Rate (2nd), and Rebound Rate (1st). His TO Rate and TS% are middling, but considering his impact on defense (solid, and gets steals), Westbrook fits the bill as today's 2nd best PG. One thing troubling about Westbrook is his 38.2% eFG on jumpers is showing very little improvement. But he keeps increasing his FT%, so maybe there's a decent stroke lying somewhere inside of him. He's really fun to watch, and once he learns to consistently play in control, he can maximize his aggressiveness. As his UR, FTA (1st among PGs), and highlight reel can attest, no PG is more aggressive than Westbrook, and you can tell why the Thunder are somewhat overachieving this year.

3. Derrick Rose: 22.99 PER. Time for some Hartsell subjectivity. Steve Nash is 3rd in PER, but Rose is pretty close to him and Rose is the better defender of the two. He's also been forced into taking over a ton of offense with Boozer missing so much time. MEC has been really hard on D-Rose in the past, and I say much of it was deserved, but he's earned his due this season. Rose is a nice 45.5% jump shooter, thanks to his newfound 3 point shot, up from 44.6% a season ago (where he shot better on mid and long 2s). He's also an explosive finisher (58% at the rim), and is surprisingly good at taking care of the ball (10.1 TO Rate), so he plays more in control than his OKC doppelganger. Rose is 3rd in PG FTA but you can't help but think he can be non-confrontational going to the basket. Westbrook gets the PER nod over Rose for his superior Rebound, Assist, and Steals Rates, despite Rose besting him TO Rate (TS% and UR are too close to call between the two). Rose is also a decent, yet wildly inconsistent defender, not as solid as Westbrook. Given Rose's ability to hit jump shots, and improving his 3 ball, he may be the better long-term option, but as of today, he sits behind Russ.

4. Steve Nash: 23.36 PER. Nash is tied for 1st in PG TS%, 4th in AR, with a good UR of 24.2%. Nash can't defend but he has the luxury of playing a position where it doesn't make or break a team. His offense is terrific as always, and let's hope he gets traded where he can make a difference for a team who matters. He's working on his 6th straight 50-40-90 season.

5. Deron Williams: 22.49 PER. As I said earlier, he could have been 2nd if he would have kept up his November/December production. He's actually having a career best PER, but unfortunately in a raw rankings list, Rose and Westbrook exploded to give us the best PG play, maybe ever. Deron is the best on-ball defender on this list, but doesn't get very many steals, which makes a big impact at the position. He's 2nd in PG FTA, 3rd in UR, and 7th in TS%, but is an embarrassingly low rebounder for a player of his size and strength. He's a great 49% jump shooter. When I watch Deron, I sometimes feel like something is always missing, just a little bit. He did some things I questioned in the playoffs last year, and the fact that it looks like he has all the tools but is 5th in PER maybe is some poetic justice. I don't always like Deron's decision making, and the fact he doesn't contribute as a rebounder like Jason Kidd does is pretty disappointing. Still, 22.5 PER from a PG is fantastic, so I won't make it seem like Deron is a slacker. He just comes without the upside of the Paul/Rose/Westbrook.

Noteworthy Omission

Rajon Rondo: 18.5 PER. Rondo is amazingly fun to watch. He runs the Celtics like it seems like a true point guard should. Still, Rondo clocks in 10th in PG PER, which seems egregious to Rondo apologists. To wit, Rondo is a 56% FT shooter. I think we pretend like that's not a big deal, but your best ball handler at the end of games can't touch the ball. Rondo has dropped his UR because he's basically refusing to shoot unless it's totally necessary. He's the best defensive PG so that would bump him up against the PER roadblocks of Andre Miller and Lou Williams (a defensive travesty). For the praise he garners for his gaudy assist numbers, note he also leads these competitor PGs in TO Rate by a healthy margin. Rondo leads the league in TO per game despite playing on the slow paced Celtics. So that league-leading AR comes at a price. He has a great RR, but he's competing against some of the most gifted offensive PGs you could ask for. 10 PPG won't cut it against these top guys. It's interesting to note, however, for all of Rondo's maligned shooting woes, he's actually a 41% jump shooter, even if he is being left open.

Shooting Guard Power Rankings

1. Dwyane Wade: 25.29 PER. This is Dwyane's 3rd straight year heading the SG list. Wade's credentials are in place, as usual, thanks to a huge UR, high TS%, high RR, Steals Rate, although his AR is usually higher. Wade's defensive identity is signified by playing on a dominate defensive team despite having a traditional defensive big man. He's been the perfect sidekick to LeBron this season, and makes Mo Williams look like a high school player by comparison.

2. Kobe Bryant: 24.88 PER. It's a bounce-back year for Kobe, who had a big down-year last season. His PER more or less back to its usual point of production. Kobe ratcheted up his UR and AR, while getting his TS% back to his normal efficiency. Kobe is showing off his passing chops a lot better this season, managing to do a LeBron Light routine, which means keeping his Usage sky-high (leads the league), but also facilitating the ball better. The Lakers offense is about 3.5 points better because of it, as well. A capable defender like always, Kobe hasn't trailed off on a per-minute basis, despite the reduced MPG.

3. Manu Ginobili: 22.38 PER. If you were making a shooting guard list for this decade, it would probably have to be in this order. There have been more decorated SGs than Manu (two of them are ahead of him), but he's among the most productive. Ginobili is actually behind Kevin Martin in PER, but Manu is the better defender of the two, negating the marginal difference in the two's PERs. 58.9% TS%, 21.9% AR, 24.8% UR are Manu's leading credentials. He's a great passing 2-guard, who also scores in every way. Wade is a solid 40.1% jump shooter, Kobe is 44.6%, and Manu is a 51.2% jump shooter. So, for all of Kobe's merits of shooting Js, Manu bests him, thanks for his good 3 point shooting.

4. Kevin Martin: 22.69 PER: Martin is easily having his best year as a pro. His 61.3% TS% is outstanding and is 3rd among SGs. He's also 3rd in UR. He's also solid in regards to turnovers for a high usage player. Martin has no discernible skill beyond efficient scoring, however. His AR is pretty low, as he lacks the passing chops of the guys ahead of him, along with the rebounding chops. He's also pretty weak defensively. But Martin is too good of scorer to be denied placing on this list. A legitimate candidate for being the guy you need to get you 30 points on a given night. Severely underrated, and needs to be on a good team at some point in his career.

5. Eric Gordon: 21.14 PER. Just like with the PGs, there gets to be a noticeable drop-off after the 5th player. Gordon makes a nice cap to this list, who was enjoying a breakout season before a wrist injury put him out. Last year, Gordon had a solid, but far from spectacular PER of 14.1. Gordon's 7 point leap makes him a legitimate Most Improved Candidate. Scoring efficiently as always (58.7 TS), Gordon raised his Usage and Assist Rates, while somehow dropping his TO Rate. That'll go a long way towards leaping up PER. Gordon is also a rock solid defender, using quickness and strength to overcome his lack of height.

Noteworthy Omissions

Ray Allen/Monta Ellis/Andre Iguodala/Joe Johnson: Ray's UR is a little too low (10th PER), Monta's efficiency too low (6th PER), as is Johnson's (7th), and Andre's (8th). Andre and Joe's passing, AR, keeps them in the top ten, while Monta's UR and passing keeps him in the top ten. Ray's laser-like efficiency keeps him in the top ten.

Small Forward Power Rankings

1. LeBron James: 27.08 PER. LeBron leads the league in PER for the 4th straight year. He's actually receiving less assisted baskets in Miami than he did in Cleveland, which is strange. His numbers are a little down across the board, but here he is, still leading the league in PER. He has a 58.3% TS%, and is shooting a surprising 44.8% on jump shots, suggesting that maybe he's a better shooter than we've given him credit for. LeBron still has the excellent AR, decent TO Rate, great SF Rebound Rate, and his a All-Defense lock. Even more so than Wade, LeBron anchors the 5th best NBA defense, vacillating between positions, all without a centerpiece big man. He's still the best player in the league, and you only have to imagine what his numbers would look like had his opening month been smoother.

2. Kevin Durant: 24. 26 PER. Durant has regressed in his supposed-to-be coming out party. After 26.2 PER last season, Durant has dropped down a couple of points, when he was supposed to increase. Small dips in TS% (from 60.7 to 59.7) a downward spike in Off Rebound Rate, and a thin layer of UR removed culminate in Durant's lesser season. Despite this, he's still a top 10 player and the firm number 2 SF. The biggest problem is Durant increased his number of jump shots. He's shooting a ridiculous 77.8% at the rim this season, yet only attempts 3.9 shots a game there, down from 5.3 a year ago. Durant should be attacking the rim more, which has seen his FTAs dip from last year, instead of settling for jumpers. The Thunder should be a bit better than they are, and Durant needs to assert that he's the best player on this team. More free throws, fewer jumpers, increased rebounding, etc. Another scoring title is nice, but overall production for Durant needs to take off, to fully put himself in LeBron, Wade, Kobe, and Dwight Howard's class.

3. Carmelo Anthony: 21.14 PER. With reservations I put Melo 3rd. Paul Pierce is just a little too far Melo in PER to make up for their defensive disparities. Melo has come on in February, or else he'd easily be 4th. His scoring efficiency is suspect as usual, but his UR is great, his RR is actually really good (the best of his career), and he's pretty good with regards to TO Rate. Carmelo rates out with a good but not elite PER because of his diminutive AR, lack of defensive numbers, and an average TS%. He can't match the efficiency of LeBron, Wade, Durant, or Kobe. His defensive effort doesn't show up in PER, so given that this guy is the league's hottest commodity, the record should show PER doesn't indicate they'd be getting a championship-level player, with bad defensive habits, to boot. Carmelo's ceiling is 22 PER, which is a couple points lower than you'd want out of a bona fide franchise guy.

4. Paul Pierce: 20.02 PER: Right on Melo's heels for 3rd place, given his hyper-efficiency and balls-out defensive effort. Pierce has a ridiculous 62.2% TS%, solid 16% AR, 9% RR, and 9.3% TO Rate, and good UR of 21.4%. He can't match the volume of the guys ahead of him anymore, and it's no coincidence that his rise in efficiency comes with near career-low Usage. Still, Pierce has done great work this season in a cohesive-team way, which is more than can be said about Anthony.

5. Danny Granger: 17.47 PER. Huge drop-off here, and it was between him and Rudy Gay. The PERs are extremely close with Gay having the slight edge. Gay also creates more off the dribble than Granger, with severe differences in their baskets assisted. That implies Granger needs a little more help getting buckets than Gay does, which doesn't affect anything at the PER/team level but it shows greater individual skill. Gay's team has a slight winning record, while the Pacers are below .500. Normally, I'd just give it to Gay, but I'm still taking Granger because this is a down year for him. He's performed Carmelo-esque for the past few years and I'd trust him over Gay, who's basically maxed out who he is as a player. If Gay were having a breakout season of sorts, maybe I'd value that over Granger's down year, but this is a routine game by the vastly overpaid Gay.

Noteworthy Omissions: Maybe Gerald Wallace? He's just not been very good anywhere this season. Luol Deng is basically having the same year he usually has, solid but nothing great. That's about it. Thinnest position, by far. Now on to the deepest position.

Power Forward Power Rankings:

1. Pau Gasol: 23.67 PER. This is the biggest upset on the board. Gasol is 3rd PER, but first on my list, which thus far had been in agreement with PER on the top spots. Gasol, of the five worthy candidates, is the only capable defender. The rest of them are below average. Pau may not be a banger, but he is a 7 footer who protects the paint without fouling. He's not dominate, like Dwight Howard or Tyson Chandler, but I find him to be very effective/a good defender. Quickness and length can be as imposing as brute strength. By the way, has any paragraph about Gasol started out with his defense? Offensively, he still has good PER chops, with an excellent TS% and TO%, good RR, and great PF Assist Rate. The Lakers criminally underuse him and cap his UR, which hurts his PER. He can post-up, face-up, spot-up, and is great at put-backs. He also gets to the line and shoots 78-80% from there. He really is amazingly skilled. If I'm drafting a PF for one season, I have to take Pau because he's the most complete PF today.

2. Kevin Love: 24.51 PER. Good God, it's Kevin Love! I wrestled with having Love first, because well, he's first in PER. Let's review his credentials because his credentials are probably the most fun in the league this year. He has a terrific 23.4% Rebound Rate. He's shooting 59.6% TS, including 44% from 3. If the Lakers actually used Pau correctly, I'd probably give Love the nod, because the Timberwolves certainly underuse Love. He only has a 21.7% UR, despite the fact he should probably be getting the ball every time down the court. He's not totally sharp from everywhere yet, but he's a pretty good post-up player, and he can really nail the 3. He's solid in regards to TO%, and AR. What kept Love from the top spot is his below average defense. If he can get to be a solid defender, then we're talking about a legitimate franchise player. Nonetheless, sitting at number 2 amongst the deepest position in the league is extremely impressive.

3. Dirk Nowitzki: 23.41 PER. This is really hard. Amare has the PER advantage, but some of that has to do with blocked shots that Amare collects, but as we all know, he can't defend at all. Dirk is okay, I guess, but he's gotta be better than Amare. Dirk is shooting an outrageous 61.7% TS. He has a good 25.4% UR, and an exceptional 8.9 TO%. He's not a good rebounder but we've learned to cope with that shortcoming. Dirk's game seems more consistent, with Amare being unstoppable in stretches and cold in others. I'd take the guy I could count on.

4. Amare Stoudemire: 24.19 PER. Amare has kicked up his UR and AR to new highs, helping to compensate for the fact his TS% is quite a bit lower than his career average of 60.2%. This is just his 3rd best year in terms of PER, considering he's the main man now. His defense is still a problem and I have no idea how the Knicks plan on building a contender around Amare and a possible Carmelo's defensive liabilities. He turns the ball over a bit, and he doesn't rebound. But he can score efficiently in bunches. It's hard not to get enamored with his offensive game, where he can shoot from anywhere inside the arc, and faces-up nicely for nifty finishes and/or drawing contact. And no matter his rank on this list, his 24+ PER is terrific, there's just a lot of great PF play.

5. Blake Griffin: 23.51 PER. Proving to be more than just a highlight reel, Blake is already a franchise PF, midway into his rookie year. He excels with his high UR and excellent RR. Blake absolutely crashes the boards. He has a good AR for a PF and his TO% is solid. The TS% is decent, and is dependent on his ability to improve his free throw shooting. He's trying to stretch his range with 4.7 jumpers a game, at a wince inducing 35.1% eFG. At some point, you have to believe Blake will improve that number a bit (maybe not Amare's level, but improvement, nonetheless), and his FT shooting. His inside game is pretty sharp, using an array of moves to get to the basket. His passing is deceptively good, as well. There's no ceiling to Blake, who could be flirting with 30 PERs soon.

Noteworthy Omissions: Too many to list. There are 8 more players with at least 20 PERs. Garnett would probably get the first nod because his defense is better than anybody's at the position. But the position has a bunch of great players at it, so we'll just celebrate that.

Center Power Rankings

1. Dwight Howard: 25.49 PER. No surprise here. Dwight has a career high in UR, and his typically high Rebound Rate, Block Rate, and 60% TS%. His defense is reportedly a little less dominant, but the Magic's defensive rating is better than last year's (barely), despite playing with a slew of non-defenders. I'm going to assume that just because his blocks are little down, the defense is a taught as ever.

2. Al Horford: 22.58 PER. An upset at number two! A career year for Horford, who has bumped his UR but is still undervalued and underused by the Hawks. There's the great 60.1% TS%, the terrific center AR of 19.3, and the TO% of 7.8. He's a solid defensive center on the 13th best defense. He's a 53.5% jump shooter, and is just as effective on the inside, 72,7% at the rim and 46.7% inside ten feet. It's weird people lament the lack of great big men today and then totally underuse one of the best ones in the game. Horford is for real.

3. Tim Duncan: 21.58 PER. Duncan is 4th in PER but is still strong on defense where Nene is just mediocre, and their PERs are splitting hairs apart. Good rebounding and turnover numbers, despite scoring inefficiency and a lowered UR. It's a down year for Duncan but still a productive one, so the tales of his decline are understated, considering his minutes have been lowered.

4. Nene: 21.76 PER. I wanted Nene to be higher because he's an underrated guy, but even with his mind-blowing 69.6% TS, PER still sees the holes. His Rebound Rate is okay, at best, his TO% is just okay, and his UR is pretty pedestrian at 17%. Nene is an average defender, but ultimately, his value is in the fact he leads the league in FG% every year. He has great hands, makes hard cuts to the basket and finishes the hell out of the ball. He's not a guy you post-up, but you gotta give it to him when he's rolling or is set up deep.

5. Andrew Bynum: 20.71 PER. Injuries aside, Bynum is a really good player. He's so big, he changes everything at the rim, even if he's not Howard/Chandler-esque. His numbers are solid all across the board, except for a really good TS%, and when you add that up into a 7'1" 280lb body, you get a really good center. AR, UR, RR, TO% is all good, not great, but it adds up. He doesn't have any holes, even if he doesn't dominate anywhere.

Noteworthy Omissions

Joakim Noah/Tyson Chandler/Andrew Bogut/Al Jefferson: Noah turns the ball over a bit, but he's a really good rebounder and has a good TO% and AR and TS%. Great defender. Chandler: Awesome TS%, transcendent defender, great rebounder. Too low of a UR and a high TO%, though. Bogut: Bad TS%, but is pretty good everywhere else, plus he's a really, really good defender. Unsightly TS%, though. Jefferson: Awesome TO% and just okay everywhere else. Not in top form.

Power Rankings: Top Ten Teams

1. Spurs- 44-8, +7.2 point differential. They've been really healthy and their PD, while great, isn't as blazing as their record. Still, they have 6 games on the next closest team, have three 20+ PER players, and are great on their home court.

2. Heat- 38-14 +7.9. When the Big Three play, they're a really great team now. Best PD in the league, but they could use another signature win than just the Christmas win over the Lakers.

3. Boston- 38-14 +6.7. They just lost to the Lakers, but they have a game and a half on the Lakers, plus are still missing Shaq, Delonte West, and Marques Daniels. The defense is more imposing than the Lakers offense.

4. Lakers- 37-16 +6.7. They got their first signature win, but the Lakers still need more consistent defense. Four players over 20 PER, though, is really impressive.

5. Bulls- 35-16 +5.7. It's hard not to think that the Bulls are going to start rolling over people when they get Noah back. The league's best defense is going to keep improving, and Noah might even add a spark to their MOR offense.

6. Mavericks- 37-16 +3.0. I'm takin Dallas here because that time without Nowitzki was brutal. Nowitzki and Chandler are carrying the Mavs, but this is in hopes that Roddy Beaubois can inject life into their offense.

7. Magic- 34-20 +5.5. PD suggests Orlando should be better than they are. Jameer Nelson continues to ride the career roller coaster, and currently he's not pulling his weight and Gilbert Arenas has been awful. On the other hand, the Bass/Anderson combo has been killer. Richardson and Turkoglu have been disappointments but solid rotation guys. They need more scoring and nobody is stepping up.

8. Hornets 32-22 +2.4. Paul is the 2nd best player in the league and David West is having his best year. But after Emeka Okafor, who's hurt at the moment, New Orleans doesn't have a quality guy anywhere, not until Marcus Thornton starts shooting the ball well again. It's a 2 1/2 man team, which is good enough for 8th in the league, but not a real contender. They need some help.

9. Thunder 33-18 +1.9. The Hornets are tough when everybody is healthy. The Thunder are healthy and have every game come down to the wire and can't perform against the top teams. Durant and Westbrook are basically playing Serge Ibaka and that's it. James Harden is solid but doesn't get enough minutes, and the rest of the guys are middling. Missing an impacting big man besides Ibaka.

10. Atlanta 33-19 +1.4. A solid quad of Horford, Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith, but they lack much depth. Horford should be the number 1 guy, and the rest of those guys are 3rd bananas. It's a mismatched team that has enough top -end talent to be where they are.

Midseason Awards:

MVP: LeBron James. Best PER, 2nd best record. Who else?

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard. 3rd best defense, yet plays with zero good defenders. All credit to the big man.

6th man: Lou Williams. 18.8 PER, best among 6th men. Lamar Odom has started more games than sat, so he doesn't count.

Most Improved Player: Eric Gordon. Everyone is giving this to Kevin Love but Love only jumped about 4.5 points in PER, while Gordon jumped 7.

Coach of the Year: Gregg Popovich. Racking up wins, resting his players, developing a strong bench. Good enough for me.


All-NBA First Team

G: Chris Paul
G: Dwyane Wade
F: LeBron James
F: Pau Gasol
C: Dwight Howard

All-NBA Second Team

G: Russell Westbrook
G: Kobe Bryant
F: Kevin Durant
F: Kevin Love
C: Al Horford

All-NBA Third Team

G: Derrick Rose
G: Manu Ginobili
F: Dirk Nowitzki
F: Amare Stoudemire
C: Tim Duncan